DavidDec 4, 20224 minInter-market InconsistencyBonds are too bearish and stocks are too bullish about the US economy. I discuss two potential catalysts that can resolve this inconsistency
DavidNov 27, 20220 minImminent Repricing of Ukraine and China's Risks?The massive outperformance of European and Chinese assets in November is vulnerable to Putin's new war strategy and China's COVID outbreak
DavidNov 20, 20220 minPriced for PerfectionPriced for perfection, the bond and stock markets have no place to go but backwards. Our bias: steeper curve, higher USD, lower stocks & EM
DavidNov 13, 20220 minWorst midterm outcome possible for US assetsThe US midterm results and Russian retreat from Kherson are both negative for the USD. We go to UW bonds on CPI and stay UW stocks.
DavidNov 6, 20220 minUS Midterms are bullish for the EuroOlaf Scholz's China trip = no chance of relaxation of zero tolerance in 2022. US midterm = bullish oil before Jan 3 and bullish euro after
DavidOct 30, 20220 mincleaner positioning argues for reloading riskBonds are fairly priced but stocks not. Watch out for Russia-Ukraine war to intensify in Nov. China policy surprises to buoy AUD & oil
DavidOct 23, 20220 minHow to Profit from Xi's 3rd TermI discuss the market implications of Xi's 3rd term, the UK prime ministerial race, and the Brazilian elections. John talks US term premium
DavidOct 16, 20220 minSecond guessing Xi, Putin, and TrussXi's only option is bullish AUD, but GBP will keep falling whether Truss stays. Putin's predicament is bullish gold. I remain UW stocks
DavidOct 9, 20220 minTime to buy some TIPS and GoldThe Fed has no room to pivot; nor does Xi from Putin. Higher base rates mean higher cash allocations. Stay UW equities. Buy TIPS and gold
DavidOct 2, 20220 minUSD rally is not overThe sanctions on Russia have pushed the USD to its all-time high. With geopolitical risk set to intensify, GBP and AUD remain vulnerable
DavidSep 25, 20220 minA Toast to Our First MilestoneHurrah! Our balanced portfolio is a hair's breadth away from its annual target, with an IR of 1.3. We are beating Fidelity and BlackRock.
DavidSep 18, 20220 minWaiting for the preyWith markets finally coming our way, we can afford to swing the bat and position for more equity weakness and the recession trades
DavidSep 11, 20220 minWhat will Putin tell Xi next week?Markets celebrated Ukraine's victory last week by pushing up stocks and pushing down energy. My scenario analysis suggests to fade the move
DavidSep 4, 20220 minMarket finally coming our wayThe divergence between VIX and real yields is consistent with capitulation. However, we don't think the equity correction is over..
DavidAug 28, 20220 minInvestment implications of the mid-term electionsOur call for higher rates/lower stocks has been vindicated. Pro-cyclical fiscal policy ahead of the mid-term means repricing just started
DavidAug 21, 20220 minTough Market = good lessonsInflation surprises on both sides of the Atlantic caught us on the wrong foot in the last 2 weeks. We re-examine our process and thesis
DavidAug 14, 20220 minTactically bullish stocksI remain bearish bonds but I can see stocks going up another 5%. I go OW stocks next week on easing western sanctions on Russian oil export
DavidAug 7, 20220 minMilton friedman comes with a lagToo many people who are invoking Milton Friedman as a reason for why the Fed hiking cycle will end soon sadly never got beyond Econ101.
DavidJul 31, 20220 minPowell is wrong about the neutral rateThe neutral Fed Funds rate (the so called r*) is higher than where the Fed thinks it is. We remain UW bonds and UW equities for next week
DavidJul 24, 20220 minPutting the cart before the horseThe market thinks it has found a sweet spot but the Fed is not in a party mood. We are UW bonds/UW equities going into FOMC.