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Investment implications of the mid-term elections



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For the record, I make it a habit of listening to Trump admirers to keep testing my negative opinions on Trump. Like any person he had some good ideas, but IMO his wrong opinions far outweigh those. So keep the Biden criticisms coming - makes it more valuable for me. I am less interested in opinions that agree with mine on Trump & Biden.

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Miembro desconocido
02 sept 2022
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Robert, You have the right to know where I stand on Trump. I don't believe in personality cult. The only thing that matters to me in a politician is the results he or she delivers. I am a supporter of Trump's policies only because I believe they benefit average Americans who have been ignored by the elite for too long.

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Good points on college education, but don't both of you have college educations? The problem is that as you say "the government" advertises that ALL college graduates make a better living than non-college graduates, and that is just NOT TRUE. As you imply, it depends on what subject/ field you study. Colleges have become businesses and they accept every student who can pay for tuition, no matter how they pay (loans or otherwise). Government loans DO have high-school grade-based merit system so there is SOME logic to gov't loans, BUT marketing by Colleges and Universities still wins out. It's an imperfect system but it's also a BIG country. Also I agree with the logic that poor-er college graduates wit…

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Absolutely, I've no problem with Philosophy, which is closely related to logic, or any subject that teaches sound reasoning and effective communication. The empirical data however says that there are a lot of people with student loan debt who either didn't learn what the market wants, or that there is more supply of people with these skills than positions available. With around 50% of people now going to college, I'm inclined to think the former.

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This week the equity portfolio is short 8.3% XLI against long 8.3% XLB. The materials sector could be the beneficiary of Chinese stimulus.


The bond portfolio will be short 10% IEF and long 5% TLT. Sticking with the long end flattening theme. I decided against mortgages because they are trading almost identically to treasuries at the minute, which means short term returns are probably mostly noise, but with unfavourable skew.


https://www.davidwoounbound.com/post/more-buyers-or-sellers-genius-or-insanity


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I subscribe to a couple of excellent investment substakes and as I watch this video it basically comes to the opposite conclusion on some important items (David indicates economic strength, rising rates and commodity strength while the other see's a turnover in the the economy, falling rates. weakness immediately ahead incl layoffs and weakness in commodities). I think the point im making and gleening is we're in for soem chopiness for the next few months and investors and hedge fundies fight these opposing views out. next week, is anyone NOT on vacation though... then we have the sprint for fundis to show a better Q than Q2. reeally thought provoking- thank you.

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29 ago 2022
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Thanks George. There are two truisms about the market that is humbling: (1) for one to be right, some one has to be wrong; (2) nobody is right all the time. With the big data download this week, I know I will not be sleeping well :-)

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Dear David,


Do you see the pass of JCPOA will be the last lag of oil price before recession(at least EU)?

In addition, if the JCPOA get passed, will US keep release SPR or US will stop?

If US stop to release, the net effect of Iran will be marginal and then, we are heading into winter.


Cheers,


James

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James, It looks like I was wrong about an Iran deal being done soon. The IAEA threw a wrench in the works for Biden. It would seem that the IAEA decided to do the right thing. Good for them. Pretty bullish for oil price especially after the recent sell off

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