John4 days ago4 minDamned if they do...After the ECB, the Fed may not want to hike. Tech remains most vulnerable to seasonal risk reduction. Lower stocks/lower rates/higher USD.
DavidSep 107 minGetting Ahead of Coming Risk ReductionSoft-landing is not great for markets. Nor is Sep With vol still low, risk reduction has just started. Lower stocks/lower rates/higher USD
DavidSep 38 minFog Lifting, FinallySoft-landing bullish steepener & regional banks. Chinese data bullish Asian FX. Stagflation bearish EUR/USD. Huawei new phone game changer?
DavidAug 278 minTrading like J. PowellPowell gave us some useful hints last week about how he will read the data dump next week. Our bias: lower stocks, higher USD, lower rates
DavidAug 204 minSell High to Buy LowWith markets having traded in our liquidity tightening regime 3 weeks in a row, we are positioned for rotation to growth pessimism. Buy TIPS
DavidAug 137 minPowell's worst nightmareHave we seen the bottom in US inflation? How long can Xi keep the stock market waiting? Higher rates, lower stocks, higher oil, higher USD.
DavidAug 68 minMacro is Back!US labor market is stronger than it looks. Geopolitics support further oil rally. Our bias: higher rates/lower stocks/higher oil/higher USD
DavidJul 305 minStaying the CourseWe keep our long positions in US regional bank stocks, CSI 300, and oil, and expect US to continue to underperform non-US IG bonds
DavidJul 237 minOur Conviction Level Goes upPowell won't backtrack on guidance of two more hikes and Putin won't hold off his offensive much longer. We discuss how we are positioned...
DavidJul 168 minThe Sucker's RallyPositive US real wage growth bearish bonds & growth stocks. USD's technical looks worse than fundamental. Ukraine bonds & Swedish krona ...
DavidJul 99 minThe power of 1.8 and 80Oil breakout & cycle-high US real yields are set to alter market correlations. Important design changes to our portfolio construction
DavidJul 28 min2-Year Treasury Yields into FocusThe market has traded in our growth optimism regime in 5 out of the past 7 weeks. 2y US yields and USD/Asia to head higher, unless ...
DavidJun 259 minGloves are OffHow to trade Russian mutiny? How rare when SPX and VIX go down together? Time to sell GBP? Have EM local currency bonds turned the corner?
DavidJun 1810 minHistory Says Stocks Won't Outperform CashWe move to neutral bonds but stay max UW equities. We add EMLC to our Absolute Return portfolio. A Ukraine defeat would be EM bullish
DavidJun 162 minSomething Funny is Going onA series of events this week makes us think that we will soon see some thawing of US-China relations. We buy ASHR ahead of Blinken's trip..
DavidJun 118 minWill Ukraine's Offensive Spill Over to Markets?My prediction that Ukraine would launch its offensive in May was off by a week. Now that it has begun, when will the market feel its heat?
DavidJun 410 minFighting Momentum GentlyTighter liquidity, higher oil price, largest ever NATO air exercise to test equity rally. UW stocks, UW bonds. Still long BOTZ, LMT, GLD
DavidMay 289 minWhy did Kevin McCarthy Cave?How to trade the debt ceiling deal? We need to first understand why McCarthy gave up without a fight. I have 2 hypotheses. Call me crazy ...
DavidMay 218 minA sick jokeThe gap between Republicans and Biden over the debt ceiling cannot possibly be any wider. We remain max UW stocks & neutral bonds
DavidMay 147 minThe Unloved Dollar to Shine? Price action of bond and stocks suggests they are priced to perfection. We remain long USD & max UW stocks. Storm shadow a game changer...
