John4 days ago8 minThe Rental EconomyGoods are expensive, so growth is being driven by renting. We stay long NVDA, and buy some companies who only let their customers rent.
JohnApr 217 minBad News Is In The PriceA jump in rates helped trigger a rotation into bond like positions. Unless growth stalls, the worst is now over for stocks. We buy the dip.
JohnApr 146 minDéjà vu 2022The jump in rates required to zap inflation has stocks in a box. Even without a new war to worry about, it's 2022 again. We move to cash.
JohnApr 76 minOil Breakout Has ConsequencesThe breakout in oil and metals says central banks are making a mistake. Sell CCL for STLA. Sell XLY, but look for big tech to bounce.
JohnMar 315 minNew Quarter, Same TrendsQ1 winners lagged last week as Q1 ended. Lower volatility says their leadership will return. We go long our momentum stocks again.
JohnMar 246 minBelieve The Dollar HypeAI hype and the PBOC are bullish for the USD. Higher rates might not help equities though. We move to neutral. Buy the breakout in energy.
JohnMar 177 minA Steep Task For The FedThe Fed wants to reduce its duration without crashing the market. Utilities will object, but a dovish dot plot can help. We stay long.
JohnMar 106 minA World Cruise on QE2Profit taking in the US makes international stocks the new leaders. Lower rates and higher stocks are great for cruiselines. We stay long.
JohnMar 37 minQE or not QE?Strong global growth and the prospect of QE will excite the market until the FOMC in March. We stay long high beta stocks. Sell GOOG.
JohnFeb 256 minAi-Ai-AiA resumption of AI mania means equities don't mind a Fed on hold. We get back in the momentum trade and sell utilities against materials.
JohnFeb 186 minHigher inflation = Higher risksUS leadership of global stocks is at risk from inflation. NVDA has a high bar to meet to sustain momentum. We exit our stocks and buy ACWI.
JohnFeb 117 minSeasonal TailwindsChinese New Year and bank bonus season are helpful to stocks. We stay long the market. Retail sales to support XLP. ALGN is smiling.
JohnFeb 46 minUnmovable Rates, Irresistible MomentumStrong growth means the Fed is on hold, which supports existing trends. We go long the market, but dislike banks.
JohnJan 286 minSame Action From China Means Same ResultsChina cut the RRR yet again, catching the watchful market totally off guard. What a Melchettian shambles. We stay in cash; Sell gold.
JohnJan 216 minTwo Reasons To Sell TSLAWe take profit on our stocks. For TSLA, we take more lasting action, as if we just sell for one reason, we might end up buying it again.
JohnJan 145 minEasier Street Trading is never easy, but Wall Street thinks the Fed can make it easier than usual. We stay long the market. Higher oil is a risk for JETS.
JohnJan 70 minBeating the Equity Market In 2023 we beat cash. In 2024 we want to beat equities. Our macro regime switching portfolio tries to do this by sidestepping drawdowns.
DavidJan 10 minDid we beat the market in 2023? Our Absolute Return Portfolio finished 2023 up 6.7%, compared to 1.7% of macro hedge funds. Our asset allocation portfolio returned 10.5%...
DavidDec 17, 20230 minThe Christmas Head FakeThe Fed didn't pivot; it bought political cover for the election. More than 3 cuts if and only if recession hits or OPEC+ falls apart
DavidDec 10, 20237 minTaking on the most crowded tradeInvestors are betting on further oil price decline to extend equity and bond rally. Not if Putin, Maduro, and the Houthis have a say