Second guessing Xi, Putin, and Truss
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According to the People's Daily on Oct 17, 2022, China Eastern Airlines is planning to resume several international routes, leading to 42 international routes and 108 flights per week in the 2022/23 winter/spring flight season starting from Oct 30 (vs. 25 international routes and 54 flights per week as of mid-Oct). China Southern Airlines also plans to increase international flights to 86 per week from 71 previously.
Dear David,
It seems like Market are seeing potential central banks back down (BoE) and slower pace of easing (Fed, ECB) as the means to drive market up, do you see it is reasonable and possible?
In addition, market also see a sustain rebound to year end (2 months, X'mas gift). Is it likely ?
Cheers,
James
The red wave might happen but looking at the chart you posted the red republican range is so far unchanged. The blue Democrat range is the one breaking out of its normal horizontal range/trend. You can see this by blue meeting crossing over the red line back and forth. If the blue line moves above the red line and holds support your narrative may be invalidated. David, You explained on why a RED win would be disruptive negative to business and stocks but could you please share your thoughts on a blue win. How would you "model" macro economic changes stocks business cycle on a blue hold/win? Thank you
As we approach mid terms news on Ukraine will most likely fade. Why? This psyops on the American public has failed. Within a week of Russia invading Ukraine there was a billboard on interstate 4 "we support Ukraine". "Wag the Dog" gone wrong. Like Albania there aint no song which rhymes with Ukrainia.
David, I have to pull you up on your humane war "analysis". The better comparison is the civilian casualties during period of the invasion of Iraq. The best measure is local civilians verses local enemy. Numbers are unclear but best estimate is that during the invasion the allies killed13-45K Iraqi military and 3-7K civilians ie about 2:1 worse case and perhaps as high as 15:1 - call it 6:1. During this time the allies "liberated" 3 cities up to 1M in population and Baghdad with a population of 5M. In and around Baghdad the Americans engaged 3 Iraqi brigades (10K? soldiers) and left the city largely untouched. Compare that to the Russians who have killed 6K civilians at lea…