DavidApr 196 minHow to trade the "China Shock 2.0"?China wants to export its way out of its economic slump, but US/EU are not having it. What is the chance of a full-blown 2024 trade war?
DavidApr 127 minWill Powell Bite the Bullet?Between doing nothing and nipping inflation risk in the bud, which course of action is more risky?
DavidApr 66 minPax Americana and 2024 US ElectionUS foreign policy under Biden very bullish for defense stocks. Who does the US defense complex want to see win? Pax Americana and the USD.
DavidMar 298 minUS Election Uncertainty RisesThe race is set to tighten. Trump's biggest challenge is not his legal problems. Can the GOP lose its House majority before the election?
DavidMar 227 minWhich CEntral Bank Will Cut First?Labor productivity is going up in the US and Japan and going down in the Eurozone and Canada. What does this mean for their currencies?
DavidMar 158 minWho's been buying gold and whyOne day we might look back at the gold rally over past 3 weeks as marking the end of the stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine war. Buy or sell?
DavidMar 99 minAn Investor's Roadmap to a Second Trump TermWhat does a likely second Trump term mean for stocks, rates, oil, and the USD? How serious is Trump's threat of a 60% tariff on China?
DavidMar 17 minJapan's Reversal of FortuneUS-China rivalry has transformed Japan's geoeconomic position, with global tech race ushering a Japanese industrial revival. JPY too cheap
DavidFeb 169 minWhy Putin is wrong about the USDPutin, in his interview with Tucker Carlson that has already 200mln views, explained why the end of USD hegemony is near. Why? Is he right?
DavidFeb 97 minWhat Powell Didn't Say on 60 MinutesTranscript: Economics and politics usually go hand-in-hand in a US presidential election year 2024 will be no exception if not more so...
DavidFeb 20 minWhy is Iran Holding the Global Economy Hostage?To get macro right in 2024 means getting oil right. To get oil right means getting Iran right. I talked to a man who gets Iran like no other
DavidJan 267 minHow to Trade a Second Trump PresidencyIn a second term, Trump's foreign policy would be more important than his domestic policy agenda for the global economy and markets.
DavidJan 126 minBiden Opens a Can of WormsBiden finally gave the green light to attack the Houthis. What chain reaction will this decision set off? Geopolitics to trump soft landing?
DavidDec 28, 202312 minThe best and worst world leaders in 2023National rivalry is intensifying everywhere. In the new age of nationalism, macro investing is about picking the right political leaders
DavidDec 15, 20238 minWhy the market is totally wrong about the Fed!The Fed's 3 cuts are meant as political cover in 2024 elections. Powell has boxed in the Fed to stay above election politics. Bearish bonds
DavidDec 8, 20237 minWill China Bite the Bullet or the Dust?I discuss the meaning and implications of Beijing's recent decision to demand state banks to provide unsecured loans to developers.
DavidNov 24, 20238 minThe Most Difficult Decision in 2024?What will MBS do in the face of surging US oil production? Are the interests of the Saudis & BRICS still aligned? Where is oil price headed?
DavidNov 17, 20236 minUS - China rivalry: Biden's way or Trump's way?What is at stake in the 2024 US elections is how the US will deal with China in the future. I discuss the alternative approaches on offer
DavidNov 10, 20235 minAmerica Misses TrumpThe Times/Siena poll of the 2024 battleground states suggests a new political maturity of American voters. A bullish US sign
DavidNov 3, 20230 minMossad 1-0 IranA key context of the Israel Hamas war is a game of wits between the Mossad and Iran that has altered the balance of power in the Middle East