David7 hours ago7 minUS consumers: tapped out or world savior?Is the reality of American life painted by the hit song "Rich Men North of Richmond" supported by economic data? I remain bullish USD
DavidSep 149 minSoft Landing or a Recession?With markets having abandoned recession for soft landing, the risk-reward for recession trades has improved. What can bring on a recession?
DavidSep 79 minA viable BRICS currency ideaEveryone is talking about a BRICS currency, but there is only one viable path in the battle of the unipolar versus the multipolar world
DavidSep 18 minThe Race to the BottomDebt burden is emerging as a crucial determinant of investment returns as the pace of the global geopolitical realignment intensifies
DavidAug 318 minThe Race to the BottomDebt burden is emerging as a crucial determinant of investment returns as the pace of the global geopolitical realignment intensifies
DavidAug 100 minThe 5 Biggest Questions about the WarA candid discussion about the war with a US air force veteran who is also a four-time CEO and a long-time adviser to the State Department
DavidAug 35 minFitch is my New HeroFitch's US downgrade increases the risk of a government shutdown in the fall. Growing political polarization long-term bearish for bonds.
DavidJul 278 minChina's Last Chance to Get It RightIf Beijing is taking its time to decide how to respond to the failing recovery, it is because it does not have good options, except one ...
DavidJul 218 minEuro's Dead Cat BounceThe EUR's recovery to pre-war level is a testament to Europe's reduced dependency on Russian energy. What if the cost is deindustrialization
DavidJul 148 minA Tradable War? War, mutiny, NATO membership. What does game theory tell us about Putin's likely next move? What is the trade?
DavidJul 68 minThe European Union's Existential CrisisAnti-immigration nationalist parties across Europe are surging in the polls. Is there still time for Europe to defuse the ticking time bomb?
DavidJun 306 minAnd the Winners Are...Which were the 3 best performing currencies in the world in the first half of 2023? Why are they uniquely positioned in a polarizing world
DavidJun 227 minThe Eerie Concentration of Returns 90% of S&P 500's world beating return this year has come from just 7 stocks. What happens when big tech and politicians join forces?
DavidJun 150 minUltimate Threat to the US: China 2020s or Japan 1990s?What can we learn from Japan of the 80s and 90s about China of today? I talked to a uniquely qualified expert in Tokyo to find out
DavidJun 88 minWho is Winning the War on Inflation?Which countries have done a better job dealing with the global inflation shocks? What does this mean for their medium-term growth prospects?
DavidJun 18 minThe New Age of Gold?I am not a gold bug. However, war, debt & inflation have reduced the degree of substitutability between gold and other assets ...
DavidMay 256 minWill the Debt Crisis Save America?Ironically, the debt ceiling in a divided Washington is the best, if not the only, recipe for the much needed fiscal discipline for the US.
DavidMay 187 minTime to invest in Turkey?Erdogan's policy experiment has left Turkey with little debt and an undervalued lira. His victory will be a win for the multipolar world
DavidMay 117 min1 Election + 2 WAR = ?With Trump ahead and Kennedy in ascent, Biden may prefer litigations over spending cuts, and a risky Ukrainian offensive over stalemate.
DavidMay 46 minDebt ceiling: America's necessary evilHow serious are America's fiscal and debt problems compared to allies like the UK and Canada and rivals like China and Russia?
