DavidAug 13, 20237 minPowell's worst nightmareHave we seen the bottom in US inflation? How long can Xi keep the stock market waiting? Higher rates, lower stocks, higher oil, higher USD.
DavidAug 6, 20238 minMacro is Back!US labor market is stronger than it looks. Geopolitics support further oil rally. Our bias: higher rates/lower stocks/higher oil/higher USD
DavidJul 30, 20235 minStaying the CourseWe keep our long positions in US regional bank stocks, CSI 300, and oil, and expect US to continue to underperform non-US IG bonds
DavidJul 23, 20237 minOur Conviction Level Goes upPowell won't backtrack on guidance of two more hikes and Putin won't hold off his offensive much longer. We discuss how we are positioned...
DavidJul 16, 20238 minThe Sucker's RallyPositive US real wage growth bearish bonds & growth stocks. USD's technical looks worse than fundamental. Ukraine bonds & Swedish krona ...
DavidJul 9, 20239 minThe power of 1.8 and 80Oil breakout & cycle-high US real yields are set to alter market correlations. Important design changes to our portfolio construction
DavidJul 2, 20238 min2-Year Treasury Yields into FocusThe market has traded in our growth optimism regime in 5 out of the past 7 weeks. 2y US yields and USD/Asia to head higher, unless ...
DavidJun 25, 20239 minGloves are OffHow to trade Russian mutiny? How rare when SPX and VIX go down together? Time to sell GBP? Have EM local currency bonds turned the corner?
DavidJun 18, 202310 minHistory Says Stocks Won't Outperform CashWe move to neutral bonds but stay max UW equities. We add EMLC to our Absolute Return portfolio. A Ukraine defeat would be EM bullish
DavidJun 16, 20232 minSomething Funny is Going onA series of events this week makes us think that we will soon see some thawing of US-China relations. We buy ASHR ahead of Blinken's trip..
DavidJun 11, 20238 minWill Ukraine's Offensive Spill Over to Markets?My prediction that Ukraine would launch its offensive in May was off by a week. Now that it has begun, when will the market feel its heat?
DavidJun 4, 202310 minFighting Momentum GentlyTighter liquidity, higher oil price, largest ever NATO air exercise to test equity rally. UW stocks, UW bonds. Still long BOTZ, LMT, GLD
DavidMay 28, 20239 minWhy did Kevin McCarthy Cave?How to trade the debt ceiling deal? We need to first understand why McCarthy gave up without a fight. I have 2 hypotheses. Call me crazy ...
DavidMay 21, 20238 minA sick jokeThe gap between Republicans and Biden over the debt ceiling cannot possibly be any wider. We remain max UW stocks & neutral bonds
DavidMay 14, 20237 minThe Unloved Dollar to Shine? Price action of bond and stocks suggests they are priced to perfection. We remain long USD & max UW stocks. Storm shadow a game changer...
DavidMay 7, 20238 minBiden's 3 decisions to shape market outlookWill Biden blink in the debt ceiling negotiation? Will he save the regional banks? Will he let Zelensky lose the war? Vol is a steal
DavidApr 30, 20237 minMay Won't be PrettyWhy are 2y US yields struggling to stay above 4%? Is the Fed one hike and done, will China disappoint, or is debt ceiling that bad?
DavidApr 23, 20236 minLiquidity Tightening is Back!Last week was the first week since Feb that the market traded in our liquidity tightening regime. We remain max UW both bonds and stocks
DavidApr 16, 20236 minI Told You SoQ1 bank results came in stronger than expected, as I predicted last week. As credit crunch concerns ease, rates & USD up and stocks down
DavidApr 9, 20239 minWhat if Jamie Dimon is Right?If Q1 calls of banks next week confirm Jamie Dimon's "we are near the end of the banking crisis", stocks and bonds will be both in trouble