Tough Market = good lessons
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David & John, in the most recent video you mentioned paying more attention to market events. This slow summer week on Bloomberg its all about what Jerome Powell will say on Friday. What can he possibly say that we haven't already heard but most importantly, do you think the markets will react or is this all hype? Would love to hear your thoughts. Thanks!
This week in the equity portfolio I'll be short 8% XLY, short 2.6% XLU and long 10.6% SPY. In the bond portfolio I'll be short 10% LQD and long 5% TLT. Details here: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/post/more-buyers-or-sellers-the-hidden-stimulus
I’ve held back on Mondays from completely executing the strategy because of what happens in Asia on Sunday, so I agree with your one action point. I continue to watch those names throughout the week and sometimes I sit it out or go in later. I welcome finalizing the schedule on Mondays.
David,
Really liked your "around the grounds" - checking the the state of the economy in the various world centres. Made me think that we might be overstating the US inflation outlook. With Europe and China activity weak and hyper inflation in Europe, the US dollar will appreciate significantly against these currencies and commodity prices are going to come under pressure - fall in US dollar terms. This is going to reduce US inflation and add strong competitive pressure to US manufacturers and services sector eg airline traffic moving from domestic to international. It will also see a flood of European investment in US dollar denominated assets - effectively adding support to US stocks and bonds. Thoughts?
Dear David,
Thanks for this profound video. I have several questions and hope you don't mind.
(a) It looks like Fed might change its tone on its US growth potential (at least short term) and might lift its rate hiking expectation/neutral rate. However, will that be impact and change market's pricing? If yes, when will it start?
(b) Do you see core inflation will be far more stick than market expectation?
(c) Can I say the scenario will be that Fed will have to tighten due to higher growth and then "might" lead to eventual recession (maybe in 2023)?
(d) Why do you see more conflict between US/China on Taiwan on early 2023?(I mean timing).
(e) Do you see more…