DavidApr 2, 20237 minStormy Daniels = Stormy Debt Ceiling FightQuiet period before bank earnings favors momentum. Hedge funds need a get-out-of-jail-free card. Trump indictment raises debt ceiling risk.
DavidMar 26, 20236 minShow me a benign credit crunchUnderperformance of bank stocks to the broader market has reached a historical extreme associated with mean reversion. How to trade it?
DavidMar 19, 20239 minDoes Gavin Newsom have money in First Republic too :-)Rates have limited downside regardless what the Fed does next week. We remain UW bonds and take profit on TDIV and gold. FRC seems too cheap
DavidMar 12, 20238 minWho's afraid of SVB?SVB's has drawn attention to the $600bn of unrealized losses that US banks are sitting on. We explain why we are not too concerned...
DavidMar 5, 20237 minLarry Summers and MeAhead of NFP, we maintain max UW bonds but moved to neutral equities. US response to Bakhmut's fall and debt ceiling development bullish LMT
DavidFeb 26, 20236 minHas the USD peaked? Our Balanced Portfolio had the best week YTD. We are staying UW bonds and stocks. 50bps hike in March. Useless JPY. Fracturing inside NATO?
DavidFeb 19, 20237 minThe case for a 50bps Fed hike in MarchIs strong US January data bullish or bearish for risky assets? Is profit taking in Asia about to turn into a rout? Key takeaways from Munich
DavidFeb 12, 20236 minMarket coming our way :-)Last week was a good week for all our portfolios. We make small changes ahead of next week's CPI release. Bullish the USD and bearish EM
JohnFeb 10, 20231 minRemoving our UVXY hedgeWe lift our hedge, but keep a small position in UVXY as we like it as a portfolio position.
DavidFeb 5, 20237 minSteeper curve, higher volStrong US labor market data does not support pricing of Fed rate cuts in 2023. Maintain moderate UW stocks but move to max UW bonds
DavidJan 29, 20235 minBetting on a hawkish FedWe wager that FOMC either hikes 25bp & sounds hawkish or hikes 50bps next week. We remain UW bonds and equities and reduce India to add LMT
DavidJan 22, 20238 minLagarde: positive China news = negative bond newsThe second round effects of higher oil price on wages are greater when inflation is high. I remain UW bonds and stocks. Russian offensive ..
DavidJan 15, 20237 minOil bites bond rally in the assHigh core services inflation argues for 50bp Fed hike in 2 weeks. Oil rally is just getting started. Risky asset correction is overdue
DavidJan 8, 20236 minA deluded bond marketPrice action in the first week of the year says a lot about the kind of year that investors are wishing for. Fading wishful thinking
DavidJan 1, 20238 minRaising our game2022 boosted our confidence and makes us want to raise our game. We launch the Unbound Absolute Return Macro Multi-Asset Portfolio.
DavidDec 27, 20221 minClosed out BNTXI closed out my BNTX position at flat. I am disappointed, but not because the trade didn't perform as I expected
DavidDec 25, 20226 minWhat can you buy with $100 billion?Hedge funds capitulated on their equity shorts last week. l maintain my max UW equity position. If Russia didn't attack Nord Stream, who did
DavidDec 18, 20226 minPosition for risk-off Hawkish central banks & weak data = bad news for stocks. We move to max underweight stocks & neutral bonds next week. Holding onto BNTX
DavidDec 11, 20225 minStaying the CourseI am staying with UW bonds and UW equity positions, as well as BNTX. Increased risk of clash between Russia & NATO favors oil and the USD