Jan 15
4 min

Leverage without leverage

Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch tell us that diversification is bad. We explain what really happens when you diversify, and how we use it.

529 views0 comments

John

Jan 2
4 min

How To Navigate The Amazon

Online reviews can't be trusted. Companies are adapting. We investigate the new equilibrium in retail, and which companies will benefit.

185 views0 comments

John

Dec 26, 2023
9 min

Boxing Day special - 2024 predictions

Our annual list of interesting predictions for the year ahead. Please add your own in the comments.

321 views2 comments

John

Dec 18, 2023
4 min

Power Play

The agreement signed at COP28 reflects the power of the Arab hosts. We infer what investments are likely to be made as a result.

136 views0 comments

John

Dec 11, 2023
6 min

The 5 minute guide to quant

Our primer on the process and primary pitfalls of quantitative investing.

49 views0 comments

John

Dec 4, 2023
5 min

Great Companies At Fair Prices

Value ETFs are too likely to buy fair companies at great prices. Instead, we use value as a filter for some sources of great companies.

198 views4 comments

John

Nov 27, 2023
7 min

Black Friday Special: 23 review

We predicted things from Aaron Judge's home run total to China's bad flu season. What else did we get right, and what surprised us in 2023?

146 views0 comments

John

Nov 20, 2023
4 min

Dead or no dead

Small cap stocks squeezed higher again. Was this still about positioning, or are we looking at a new bull trend?

169 views0 comments

John

Nov 13, 2023
5 min

Crisis management

Korea has banned short selling until June 2024. We quantify how bad we think a short selling ban like this should be for the market.

144 views3 comments

John

Nov 6, 2023
4 min

DJT going down

Transport stocks have underperformed recently. Remove airlines though and a new picture emerges. Understanding global supply chains is key.

180 views0 comments

John

Oct 30, 2023
6 min

Good News Everyone

Good news for the economy can be bad for the stock market. We investigate which countries like good news and which prefer bad news.

168 views2 comments

John

Oct 23, 2023
5 min

Trading macro views

Tech stocks are currently reacting oddly to rates. We review how sectors are responding to macro assets so we know how to trade our views.

211 views0 comments

John

Oct 16, 2023
5 min

Israel sale

Israeli stocks have performed poorly in 2023, and jumped lower still on Monday. We look for value among the largest US listed Israeli firms.

185 views0 comments

John

Oct 9, 2023
6 min

The final descent for JETS

Airline stocks are down 25% since United gave pilots a 40% raise. We investigate why, and apply the lessons to other pay negotiations.

164 views0 comments

John

Oct 2, 2023
5 min

The 5th regime

Price action in global markets is reminiscent of 2008. We build a regime model to determine how we should hedge the tail risk of a crisis.

242 views0 comments

John

Sep 25, 2023
5 min

The can kicking commences

The strike by UAW will clarify the path towards EVs for US manufacturers. In order to trade this, we investigate what is currently priced.

166 views2 comments

John

Sep 18, 2023
5 min

The agony of choice

There are hundreds of options on SPY available. We discuss the process we use to ensure that we are happy with the one that we pick.

170 views0 comments

John

Sep 11, 2023
5 min

Seasonal worries

September has got off to another bad start for stocks. After digging more into the seasonality, we think it could be about to get worse.

166 views0 comments

John

Sep 4, 2023
6 min

Shrinkage estimator

Many retailers are suffering from excessive shrink. We argue that the worst is behind them, and try to find value in the sector.

164 views1 comment

John

Aug 28, 2023
6 min

the dark side

Coal shipments are expected to make a record high in 2023. Should we join the dark side, or is there value somewhere in clean energy?

172 views0 comments

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