David6 hours ago7 minUS consumers: tapped out or world savior?Is the reality of American life painted by the hit song "Rich Men North of Richmond" supported by economic data? I remain bullish USD
John4 days ago5 minThe agony of choiceThere are hundreds of options on SPY available. We discuss the process we use to ensure that we are happy with the one that we pick.
John4 days ago4 minDamned if they do...After the ECB, the Fed may not want to hike. Tech remains most vulnerable to seasonal risk reduction. Lower stocks/lower rates/higher USD.
John6 days ago3 minHonest BoardOutside tech, the market seems happy with higher rates. This meant gains for all three of our model portfolios.
John6 days ago1 minHonest Board: Trade archive 2021-Sep 2023Our track record from inception to September 2023.
DavidSep 149 minSoft Landing or a Recession?With markets having abandoned recession for soft landing, the risk-reward for recession trades has improved. What can bring on a recession?
JohnSep 115 minSeasonal worriesSeptember has got off to another bad start for stocks. After digging more into the seasonality, we think it could be about to get worse.
DavidSep 107 minGetting Ahead of Coming Risk ReductionSoft-landing is not great for markets. Nor is Sep With vol still low, risk reduction has just started. Lower stocks/lower rates/higher USD
JohnSep 82 minHonest BoardLiquidity tightening gave a 22bp gain to our asset allocation portfolio. F35 woes from LMT sent our absolute return portfolio down 65bps.
DavidSep 79 minA viable BRICS currency ideaEveryone is talking about a BRICS currency, but there is only one viable path in the battle of the unipolar versus the multipolar world
JohnSep 46 minShrinkage estimatorMany retailers are suffering from excessive shrink. We argue that the worst is behind them, and try to find value in the sector.
DavidSep 38 minFog Lifting, FinallySoft-landing bullish steepener & regional banks. Chinese data bullish Asian FX. Stagflation bearish EUR/USD. Huawei new phone game changer?
JohnSep 13 minHonest BoardVanishing recession fears meant a 26bps loss for our asset allocation portfolio, and a 5 bps gain in our absolute return portfolio.
DavidSep 18 minThe Race to the BottomDebt burden is emerging as a crucial determinant of investment returns as the pace of the global geopolitical realignment intensifies
DavidAug 318 minThe Race to the BottomDebt burden is emerging as a crucial determinant of investment returns as the pace of the global geopolitical realignment intensifies
JohnAug 286 minthe dark sideCoal shipments are expected to make a record high in 2023. Should we join the dark side, or is there value somewhere in clean energy?
DavidAug 278 minTrading like J. PowellPowell gave us some useful hints last week about how he will read the data dump next week. Our bias: lower stocks, higher USD, lower rates
JohnAug 253 minHonest BoardA summer week of noise meant a small gain for the Unbound Absolute Return portfolio, and a small loss for the Asset Allocation portfolio.
JohnAug 216 minWinter weather forecastEl Niño is back this year, and may result in a cold winter in Europe. We tell you what Wikipedia won't, and give a prediction for oil.
DavidAug 204 minSell High to Buy LowWith markets having traded in our liquidity tightening regime 3 weeks in a row, we are positioned for rotation to growth pessimism. Buy TIPS
