DavidDec 17, 20230 minThe Christmas Head FakeThe Fed didn't pivot; it bought political cover for the election. More than 3 cuts if and only if recession hits or OPEC+ falls apart
DavidDec 10, 20237 minTaking on the most crowded tradeInvestors are betting on further oil price decline to extend equity and bond rally. Not if Putin, Maduro, and the Houthis have a say
DavidDec 3, 20238 minTime to take the other side of the marketFinancial conditions back to pre-Fed hiking cycle level! Market underestimates OPEC cut. Our bias: Rates up, Oil up, USD up, Equities down.
JohnNov 29, 20231 minExiting USOAs advertised, we exit USO in the absolute return portfolio ahead of the OPEC meeting for a small gain.
DavidNov 26, 20230 minDid Xi Finally Get the Joke?We applaud China's latest response to its property crisis. US election is bearish oil and bullish copper. Oil higher next week though
DavidNov 19, 20236 minSell USD, buy BACCan risk-on be sustained without lower oil price and real yields from here? Value to shine but USD at risk. Buy BAC
DavidNov 12, 20230 minWhere are Risks Underpriced?Hezbollah attacks on Israel intensify; US government shutdown risk rises. Biden-Xi meeting next week: buy on rumor and sell on fact.
DavidNov 5, 20236 minWhat the Fed Gives, the Fed Can Take BackFed speakers next week will try to prevent further easing of financial conditions. Regional war risk is not zero. Shutdown risk rises
DavidOct 29, 20237 minMike Johnson bullish bonds, Iran bearish Oil Equity rout not over. Mike Johnson bullish for rates. Where is Hezbollah as IDF entered Gaza? Lower Stocks & Rates, Neutral USD & Oil
JohnOct 25, 20231 minRolling our SPY put spreadWe monetize our Nov SPY put spread hedge and replace it with a 400/390 spread for December in half the size for the same potential payout.
DavidOct 22, 20238 minBond Vigilantes, Country Garden, Ground War...Exodus out of Chinese stocks accelerates. Dovish Fed fails to check surging term premium. Lower stocks lower rates, higher USD, neutral oil
DavidOct 15, 20236 minWaiting for the Shoe to DropACWI & the EUR are rolling over. A stronger than expected US retail sales might push them over the cliff. Still long LMT, XAU and TIPS
DavidOct 8, 20236 minTreasuries at War with the Magnificent 7The fact that the Magnificent 7 are increasingly trading like the ultimate safe haven is an extremely bearish development for bonds.
DavidOct 1, 20237 minThe Stocks-Bonds DuelSurging bond yields and falling stocks. Which trend will accelerate and alter the course of the other? Only suckers to repay student debt?
DavidSep 24, 20235 minBreaking the Camel's BackVideo Transcript: Major global stock markets were lower last week, with Taiwan the worst performer and China the best performer. Major...
JohnSep 17, 20234 minDamned if they do...After the ECB, the Fed may not want to hike. Tech remains most vulnerable to seasonal risk reduction. Lower stocks/lower rates/higher USD.
DavidSep 10, 20237 minGetting Ahead of Coming Risk ReductionSoft-landing is not great for markets. Nor is Sep With vol still low, risk reduction has just started. Lower stocks/lower rates/higher USD
DavidSep 3, 20238 minFog Lifting, FinallySoft-landing bullish steepener & regional banks. Chinese data bullish Asian FX. Stagflation bearish EUR/USD. Huawei new phone game changer?
DavidAug 27, 20238 minTrading like J. PowellPowell gave us some useful hints last week about how he will read the data dump next week. Our bias: lower stocks, higher USD, lower rates
DavidAug 20, 20234 minSell High to Buy LowWith markets having traded in our liquidity tightening regime 3 weeks in a row, we are positioned for rotation to growth pessimism. Buy TIPS