DavidJan 27, 20237 minConflict of interest in American hegemonyGreatest market risk in 2023 is if the US decides its hegemony is more important than world peace. Thankfully, at least hedges are cheap
DavidJan 19, 20238 min"To be America's friend is fatal"US & Chinese trade data show that US policies are weakening American allies while Chinese policies are strengthening theirs. Sell EUR & JPY
DavidJan 12, 20236 minDebt Ceiling 2023: Diffuse debt bomb or blow up ChinaThe market is right to worry about a new debt ceiling fight. America will have to decide how much to sacrifice to defend its global hegemony
DavidJan 5, 20231 minWill Dark Tankers Save the Markets Again in 2023? The world economy would have gone into a recession already if it weren't for the dark tankers that are helping Putin to evade sanctions...
DavidDec 29, 20227 minMy 3 Predictions for 20232022 was a great year for macro investing that thrives on conflicts and bad policies. I discuss what is in store in 2023 and opportunities
DavidDec 22, 20226 minMarket Implications of Reshoring in 2023Reshoring is delaying recession but keeps the Fed on tightening path. Redoing the global supply chain is bad for bonds/stocks, good for USD
DavidDec 15, 20227 minThe 2023 pain tradeEuro, oil, and inflation are trading as if the Russia-Ukraine war will be over soon. It is almost certain that the worst has yet to come.
DavidDec 9, 20226 minA Necessary Condition for a 2023 RecessionThe US private sector is in the strongest position to cope with Fed interest rate hikes in 30 years. It has just one vulnerability ...
DavidNov 29, 20222 minTRADE ALERTSome times bad news is great news. The surge of China's COVID cases is very bullish for reflationary trades. We bought BNTX at 162
DavidNov 24, 20226 minSoon will be Time to Buy OilThe oil market has too little faith in the new sanctions on Russian oil and too much faith in OPEC coming to the rescue if it all goes wrong
DavidNov 18, 20220 minMake Italy Great Again?Italy, the sick man of Europe, has an opportunity to remake itself. A multipolar world will make Europe more European. Time to buy Europe?
DavidNov 10, 20228 minBiden's GambleThe US has decided that it has so much at stake in the unipolar world order that it can't afford to take any chances. Worst is still to come
DavidNov 4, 20226 minWhat Powell Knows That Markets Don'tThe market's fear of missing the Fed pivot trades is making Fed tightening less effective and increasing the risk of rates overshooting
DavidOct 27, 20226 minMarket Implications of the US-China decouplingWall Street is still in denial about the impact of the US-China economic decoupling on Fed policy, stagflation risk, and equity valuation.
DavidOct 20, 20226 minWill the US weaponization of semiconductors backfire?Biden last week introduced the most stringent controls on US technology exports in decades. I explain why the new policy could backfire
DavidOct 14, 20220 minNo-brainer Investments: Brazil and MexicoIn Washington this week I sat down with a well respected analyst known for his insights on Brazil ahead of the crucial presidential election
DavidOct 6, 20227 minWhy is the USD so strong?The USD at 40-year high is a testament that the unipolar world is well. This will last until Europe wakes up to its folly. Will it?
DavidSep 29, 20220 minUK in Crisis: leadership in short supply1 month ago I explained why I was not a fan of Liz Truss. With markets now in open revolt, I travelled to London to get to the bottom of it
DavidSep 23, 20220 minThe Eagle Dragon DialogueIn New York this week, I sat down with David Goldman, a prolific and influential writer, to talk about the world on the edge of a precipice.
DavidSep 15, 20220 min3 Scenarios of the War for InvestorsThe Russia-Ukraine war remains a key driver of markets. I lay out 3 scenarios for the remainder of 2022 with their investment implications