DavidJun 15, 20230 minUltimate Threat to the US: China 2020s or Japan 1990s?What can we learn from Japan of the 80s and 90s about China of today? I talked to a uniquely qualified expert in Tokyo to find out
DavidJun 8, 20238 minWho is Winning the War on Inflation?Which countries have done a better job dealing with the global inflation shocks? What does this mean for their medium-term growth prospects?
DavidJun 1, 20238 minThe New Age of Gold?I am not a gold bug. However, war, debt & inflation have reduced the degree of substitutability between gold and other assets ...
DavidMay 25, 20236 minWill the Debt Crisis Save America?Ironically, the debt ceiling in a divided Washington is the best, if not the only, recipe for the much needed fiscal discipline for the US.
DavidMay 18, 20237 minTime to invest in Turkey?Erdogan's policy experiment has left Turkey with little debt and an undervalued lira. His victory will be a win for the multipolar world
DavidMay 11, 20237 min1 Election + 2 WAR = ?With Trump ahead and Kennedy in ascent, Biden may prefer litigations over spending cuts, and a risky Ukrainian offensive over stalemate.
DavidMay 4, 20236 minDebt ceiling: America's necessary evilHow serious are America's fiscal and debt problems compared to allies like the UK and Canada and rivals like China and Russia?
DavidApr 27, 20237 minGlobal North and Global South At WarWhy is Washington losing patience with the Ukraine war? It is a distraction from the bigger war in which the stakes are much higher.
DavidApr 20, 20237 minCAN APPLE SAVE THE USD'S HEGEMONY?The US net international investment position has deteriorated dramatically over the past 10 years. Why? What does it mean for the USD?
DavidApr 14, 20230 minIS BRAZIL BACK?Lula's visit to China this week was well received by the market. I sat down with 3 Brazil experts to discuss the trip's real significance
DavidApr 6, 20239 minSoft, Hard, or No Landing?The market is pricing soft landing. I explain why no landing (40%) and hard landing (40%) are both more likely than soft landing (20%).
DavidMar 30, 20236 minWhat is Putin's game plan?Is Putin playing the long game or planning a surprise attack? What does Russia's continued fiscal conservatism say about Putin's strategy?
DavidMar 24, 20237 minWho's to blame for the banking crisisThe US banking crisis has highlighted a conflict of interest between the Fed's dual role as monetary policy setter and banking regulator
DavidMar 16, 20237 minThe enemy of my enemy is my friendWill the Saudi Arabia-Iran deal brokered by China lead to durable peace in the Middle East? Will US try to sabotage it? What about Israel?
DavidMar 9, 20236 minIndia's once in a lifetime opportunityThe US has placed India at the center of its strategy to detach global supply chain from China. Can India rise to the occasion and cash in?
DavidMar 2, 20230 minIs Israel facing an "existential crisis"?ILS was the 2nd worst performing currency in Feb. I discussed the controversial judicial reform with an "infamous" Israeli historian
DavidFeb 23, 20237 minChina recovery trades under the microscopeThe China recovery trade depends on Chinese consumers dipping into their excess savings like American did in 2022. Is this going to happen?
DavidFeb 16, 20237 minWhy is Fed tightening not working?Our long-held view that it was too early to position for Fed pivot has been vindicated. The bond sell-off is not over but equity rally is
DavidFeb 10, 20237 minThe USD hegemony is NOT overThe war path Biden has embarked on to defend US hegemony is bullish USD. At the heart of the tech war is a war over reserve currency status
DavidFeb 3, 20237 minUSA vs China: Who won the COVID war? What does the COVID beauty contest tell us about the weaknesses of American democracy and Chinese autocracy?