DavidNov 10, 20235 minAmerica Misses TrumpThe Times/Siena poll of the 2024 battleground states suggests a new political maturity of American voters. A bullish US sign
DavidNov 3, 20230 minMossad 1-0 IranA key context of the Israel Hamas war is a game of wits between the Mossad and Iran that has altered the balance of power in the Middle East
DavidOct 27, 20237 minWW3: Who and What does it depend on? Even Elon Musk is now talking about WW3. In this video I discuss two potential triggers that I'm monitoring. Mike Johnson to save the world?
DavidOct 20, 202310 minIsrael-Hamas War: Some PredictionsI present a scenario analysis based on the reaction functions of the players, with probabilities assigned to each of the 3 main scenarios.
DavidOct 13, 20237 minThe Hamas TrapA long or a short war? A localized or regional conflict? Which side will win? Another casualty of US-China rivalry?
DavidOct 6, 20238 minHow the Magnificent 7 are Powering the USD rallyI explain why the surge in US real yields & the USD can be traced to the Magnificent 7 mania and what it will take to burst the USD bubble
DavidSep 28, 20230 minWhy the West is losing the Tech WarAre democracy and capitalism still giving the west the edge in innovation? I speak to the former chief scientist of Airbus to find out
DavidSep 21, 20237 minUS consumers: tapped out or world savior?Is the reality of American life painted by the hit song "Rich Men North of Richmond" supported by economic data? I remain bullish USD
DavidSep 14, 20239 minSoft Landing or a Recession?With markets having abandoned recession for soft landing, the risk-reward for recession trades has improved. What can bring on a recession?
DavidSep 7, 20239 minA viable BRICS currency ideaEveryone is talking about a BRICS currency, but there is only one viable path in the battle of the unipolar versus the multipolar world
DavidSep 1, 20238 minThe Race to the BottomDebt burden is emerging as a crucial determinant of investment returns as the pace of the global geopolitical realignment intensifies
DavidAug 31, 20238 minThe Race to the BottomDebt burden is emerging as a crucial determinant of investment returns as the pace of the global geopolitical realignment intensifies
DavidAug 10, 20230 minThe 5 Biggest Questions about the WarA candid discussion about the war with a US air force veteran who is also a four-time CEO and a long-time adviser to the State Department
DavidAug 3, 20235 minFitch is my New HeroFitch's US downgrade increases the risk of a government shutdown in the fall. Growing political polarization long-term bearish for bonds.
DavidJul 27, 20238 minChina's Last Chance to Get It RightIf Beijing is taking its time to decide how to respond to the failing recovery, it is because it does not have good options, except one ...
DavidJul 21, 20238 minEuro's Dead Cat BounceThe EUR's recovery to pre-war level is a testament to Europe's reduced dependency on Russian energy. What if the cost is deindustrialization
DavidJul 14, 20238 minA Tradable War? War, mutiny, NATO membership. What does game theory tell us about Putin's likely next move? What is the trade?
DavidJul 6, 20238 minThe European Union's Existential CrisisAnti-immigration nationalist parties across Europe are surging in the polls. Is there still time for Europe to defuse the ticking time bomb?
DavidJun 30, 20236 minAnd the Winners Are...Which were the 3 best performing currencies in the world in the first half of 2023? Why are they uniquely positioned in a polarizing world
DavidJun 22, 20237 minThe Eerie Concentration of Returns 90% of S&P 500's world beating return this year has come from just 7 stocks. What happens when big tech and politicians join forces?