My 3 Predictions for 2023
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Eo6w5R6Uo8Y&feature=youtu.be Russia's Catastrophic Oil & Gas Problem
To me, the spending levels on defense pose an interesting question. The US has sent $110 billion to Ukraine. What has the West gotten from this? The origin story of the American superpower (at least in 20th century history books) is the enormous production in World War II, and America as the arsenal of democracy. In the 1940s, the US produced tanks, planes, ships at a rate that other countries couldn't imagine. Yet, nine months into the Ukraine war, that is not at all what we are seeing. Independent media talks about how US weapons aren't working well on the ground. The West can't supply enough anti air craft to replace the depleting stock of Soviet S-300 systems that Ukraine…
Hi David, when you've referred to your market regimes framework you've mentioned the next phase should be a growth weakness regime during US long rates decline. Do you think Chinese reopening will trump, or just temper, this dynamic?
Labor force participation and healthcare cost driver view from the medical small business trenches. A few observations to indicate how tight the labor market will be and macro economic healthcare impacts. Wealthier workers have less rather than more accountability. The more you pay some of these people the less likely they will be accountable for putting in a days worth of honest hard work on a consistent basis. Many already had a poor work ethic but the grind and the struggle forced them to comply. With the lavish covid support followed by strong employees personal balance sheets, and rising income, these employees demand more money and risk running companies into bankruptcy due to higher labor input and decreased worker prod…
Given the lack of weakness in the labor market to this point, and the retreat in oil prices along with China only beginning to re-open, is it fair to assume that any economic downturn cannot gather traction for at least another quarter or two? In other words, we shouldn't expect equities to bottom more probably until the second half rather than first half of 2023?