In the short term I still prefer to wait to buy equity vol. I think the market is still a bit bearishly positioned. Next week I think people will be more reluctant to sell vol.
David, I get the impression the war is been managed for continuance. The balance achieved with equipment supplies. Attempting to maintain a level of oil and food supplies to control energy and food prices. Enough to prevent outright optimism and not enough to result in total destruction of hope. Otherwise the whole show defies logic.
David, do you think we will see oil prices spike back to their 2022 highs before the end of the year? If so, would it make sense to get long breakevens?
I think 1yr inflation swap at 2.2% (recently at 2%) is too low. This is why I like being long TIPS. But there are other ways trading the high oil and lower equity view.
How do you see volatility trending this week after the uptick and regression of VIX last week?
David, I get the impression the war is been managed for continuance. The balance achieved with equipment supplies. Attempting to maintain a level of oil and food supplies to control energy and food prices. Enough to prevent outright optimism and not enough to result in total destruction of hope. Otherwise the whole show defies logic.
David, do you think we will see oil prices spike back to their 2022 highs before the end of the year? If so, would it make sense to get long breakevens?