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Who's afraid of SVB?


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14 comentarios


W H
W H
15 mar 2023

Hi David,


CS news is now everywhere and causing panic in the market now. I fully understood your views on SVB and they really convinced me. I wonder how is your view if CS goes bankrupt like SVB, will the story be different, could you share your thoughts, thank you.


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Igor Gavrilov
13 mar 2023

David, not sure if matters for your thesis, but consumer debt service ratio remains low give very low mortgage debt service ration. Consumer debt service ratio is actually back to highest level since GFC. Employment is obviously key to be able to service that but if unemployment starts ticking up, how does that change the picture?


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David
13 mar 2023
Contestando a

If the unemployment rate starts to go up, then we may have a problem. But then interest rates will go down too

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Teikerisi
13 mar 2023

Thank you David for your excellent and timely analysis of SVB and banking nuances. Excellent call gentlemen on the UVXY hedge. I had a side position on it and closed out on Friday near the high of the day for a nice profit.

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Teikerisi
13 mar 2023
Contestando a

John, you read my mind. That's the answer to what would have been my follow up questions. Thanks!


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patp1008
13 mar 2023

Dave.

A second large bank was taken over as you were doing this podcast.."Signature Bank".

What say you?

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David
13 mar 2023
Contestando a

The debt ceiling crisis is ahead. It will be about raising taxes or cutting spending. I don’t know who will win yet

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Viv Ban
13 mar 2023

Hi David, the NIMs of US banks are at the historic high level but it‘s unlikely that it will stay that high for a long time. Depositor are also rationale beings and they are see that 1yr treasury is yielding 5% while they are getting nothing on their savings account. I was talking to friends in US, who are not from Finance industry, they all are considering investments in UST. JPM had also mentioned about the risk of NIM compression in Q4 earnings. They are already giving high interest rates to corporate clients and they will soon have to increase interest rates on retail deposit.

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David
13 mar 2023
Contestando a

The market for corporate deposits is very competitive and the rates track market rates closely. Retail deposits are a different story, especially for checking accounts. Right now banks offer high rates for time deposits but then you have to lock in the money for a fixed period. Most depositors are small so buying treasuries is complicate and money market funds are already widely available to anyone with a brokerage account. Is it laziness? NIM will come down but very gradually

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