Staying the Course
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Hi David,
Oil looks really interesting at the current level. Apart from the points that you mentioned, fundamentally $71 WTI makes little sense when dollar has weakened (DXY is down 10% from October high), China is expected to reopen the economy soon (this will bring 1mm barrel/day of additional crude demand), consumer demand is still strong despite recession worries, SPR is at multi-decade low, and new supplies are not coming online.
As you also mentioned in your other video, everybody is worried/talking about 2023 recession, I think Jerome Powell would chicken out (just like he did in 2019) and pivot prematurely. This should be good for oil, gold and other risky assets.
David, after watching this latest video and reading More Buyers than Sellers this morning, I think you've reached a very nice balance in both presentations. Something not previously credited are the transcripts of the video. That's a big plus. Thanks!
Dear David,
Just a straight and stupid question.
There are two guesses about US equity market Big correction 1H23 or 2H23?
Which side, or which quarter do you see or guess and why?
Consensus looks 1H23 gloomy and rebound 2H23 but I doubt it. I am so afraid that it's too consensus.
There is also one view that sentiment of soft landing will squeeze to 4400 then correct. But I also see this is weird. (US's demand is ok but will fall "marginally and gradually" and Also Fed will keep monetary relatively tight.
So, can you please share some ideas and ratioanles?
Cheers,
James
David, sorry if this has been mentioned before. Through what kind of instrument can retail investors participate in the next oil price rally, especially when oil stocks didnt fall as much as oil did.
David, what is fair value to you on the US 2y? I agree with you it should be trading higher than now and Powell has a chance here to push the pricing closer to intrinsic.