- Sep 14, 2023

Soft Landing or a Recession?

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4 Comments

Sep 15, 2023

Would you be able to comment on Bitcoin and it’s role with the turmoil predicted? You made an initial call years ago and there are supposed new catalysts such as etf and 2024 halving. Thank you.

David

Sep 18, 2023

Replying to

David, I haven't spent much time covering Bitcoin since it became clear that the US government is trying to kill crytpo. I don't think it necessarily means that Bitcoin is dead but it means that upside is limited. That said, the 2024 US elections could provide a catalyst for a Bitcoin rally especially if any harm comes to Trump, a Biden impeachment picks up momentum, and talk of civil war heats up. Bitcoin will benefit from anarchy for sure and 2024 we are likely to get a taste of it in the US

Dominik Blaettler

Sep 15, 2023

Dear David

In Minute 7 you are talking about a potential major trade ware between the EU and china.

Had you already a chance to look into the new EU's CBAM Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, wich starts next October ? US Congress is in discussion to implement the same tax....

I suppose, producers and cheap old economy stocks in EU/USA with heavy competition from China will doing good....

David

Sep 15, 2023

Replying to

Hi Dominik, you are absolutely right that CBAM will create more trade friction between the global north and global

south. I didn’t mention it only because it doesn’t kick in until 2026. It will hurt all developing countries, especially African and poor Asian countries. China which is moving rapidly to switch out of coal into cheap Russian nat gas as the main source of electricity generation might gain market shares when CBAM comes into effect. But 2026 is very far away. I am fairly confident there will be a massive political earthquake in Europe before then

Soft Landing or a Recession?

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