US Election Uncertainty Rises
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Hi David, I cannot find the video for last Thursday. It would be great if you could talk about the recent rally in oil and gold. Also, it would be nice if you can touch upon the resilience the equity market is showing. SPX is hovering around all time high despite rates market is expecting less than 3 rate cuts after strong ISM and jobs data.
The Republican Party is also in massive disarray. A long time ago, in the Reagan era, Democrats were the party of unions and blue collar workers, while Republicans were the big tent for business, religious, and the wealthy. But since Clinton, the Democratic Party absorbed corporate interests and Big Tech has arisen, changing the funding landscape. Look at Sam Bankman Fried, His mom bundled over $100m for Get out the Vote efforts. (Note - if you ask Google AI about this, this question as radioactive, like Russiagate.) The low hanging fruit is mail in ballots from confused kids in campuses like Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and pushing money to shady districts in big cities. You don't have be a conspiracist t…
Energy sector up because Trump is leading? Not sure about that. Sector is up in correlation to crude moving up due to opec cuts and driving season in US. Trump wants more production and lower prices. This would be good for consumers, but negative for the sector. Is the market thinking deregulation will increase profit margins?
David -
How much can we trust polls these days? We see economic data that gets revised downwards, a month after they are reported. Has the polling methodology become more difficult in an internet era? Are polls missing people who don't have land line photos , are they under sampling certain groups, and are there other factors where interests can skew poll results? I realize the answer may be there are no other alternatives. But following the discussion on medical trials, and govt spin, we can see that the design of trial procedure can heavily affect results.
As for the 2024 elections, of course it will be close. This week, there was a fundraiser in New York. Paying $100K gave…