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Drawing the right lessons from QE1, QE2, QE3



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Dear David,

do you see it is likely that Fed will be back down from tightening due to recent market volatility?( I know Powell insist tightening on 2018.)

In addition, what are conditions you think will make Fed back down?

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Unknown member
Jan 09, 2022
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10% decline in s&P 500 will be the minimum for the Fed to take a less hawkish stance. I think it is actually more than 15%

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Captain Barnacles
Captain Barnacles
Jan 06, 2022

I have to say this podcast has been extremely helpful over the last couple of days. I think the fed balance sheet shrinking so early seems to be worse news for the market than a few rate rises.

cheers

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Thank you Captain!

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Captain Barnacles
Captain Barnacles
Dec 24, 2021

The other day I went in hard on local ASX listed travel stocks - after they had gone up a little bit, covid-cost hit food manufacturers and processors, some other covid hit stocks. I suspect the omicron story could turn into one that generates excitement about omicron making things hard for Covid 19. So far has been good. An example of the kind of media stories is this one I found - might be the first of an avalanche. https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/12/21/22848453/fully-vaccinated-people-omicron-variant-super-immunity

Super-humans might nearly be able to breathe underwater after that, or even in China ;-)

(I'm picking on China - but have bought some tencent, alibaba and JD.com, (only on HKex) just in case Xi comes under pressure with lockdowns…

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Unknown member
Dec 24, 2021
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Captain, It sounds like you did well out of the rally this week. I have some hard think to do in the next 2 days before my next podcast:-) Merry Christmas! David

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Dear David, the fed has started reducing purchases and most probably until March 2022 will stop buying 150bn. but I think this is not giving us the complete picture as they have not mentioned anything about the rollovers which will continue. In addition will the fiscal expansion of 2trillion next year give another boost to the economy and support equities further (and also increase inflation) ?

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Captain Barnacles
Captain Barnacles
Dec 26, 2021
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Tax increases to pay for government spending and investment - sounds insane ;-) and rate hikes! Might you initially suspect nearly everything would lose value except USD. It has been a long time in the US since we have had any slight move towards a balanced budget. We used to hear about the government "crowding out" investors and business etc prior to the magic pudding.

I'd personally NOT enjoy having the business cycle come back again, but I think it would be healthier for the world economy than what we have had the last 30 years, with many unsuitable people being forced into the snakepit of the financial markets instead of being rewarded for saving money, and being able to…

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Thanks David. Where was the data that all recent deaths were from Delta and not Omicron? In our school district at least, Omicron is not yet causing a school shutdown. This is not for lack of cases, but rather that the Superintendent did an analysis and determined that it was in the interests of students to keep schools open. This was largely based on the number of risk assessments for student self-harm that the district has performed recently. I'm glad we have an advocate for the children in charge.

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That report of the identity of the first deceased is not credible - an anonymous caller to a radio station that I believe was a right wing show.

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