Time for Trump to Pivot?

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Trump’s approval ratings are falling

This is especially the case regarding his foreign policy

Only 41% of American say they approve and 54% of American say they disapprove his handling of foreign affairs

Who is running US foreign policy these days?

What are the biggest decisions Trump will have to make soon?

And what do they mean for your money?

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Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s special envoy, must be the hardest working man in the Trump cabinet.

Witkoff was Trump’s point man on the Gaza ceasefire negotiations.

He has since become the main American interlocuter with the Russians about the Ukraine war.

Since February, Witkoff has met with Putin no less than 3 times and their last meeting was said to have lasted 5 hours.

Last week Witkoff became the most senior American official to meet with Iranian officials since John Kerry under the Obama administration.

Steve Witkoff has emerged as America’s unofficial Secretary of State.

He appears to be doing the job that Marco Rubio signed up to do, as the top diplomat of the United States.

Witkoff was a real estate developer while Rubio served as the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee and a long-term member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. 

What is it that Trump sees in Witkoff that he is putting both Rubio and Mike Walz, his national security advisor, on the bench for the big games?

What does it tell us about how foreign policy is conducted under Trump 2.0?

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It is an understatement to say that Trump did not have an easy relationship with his foreign policy team in his first term.

Trump fired Rex Tillerson, his first secretary of state, in 2018.

He fired H. R. McMaster, his national security advisor, in 2017, and dumped John Bolton, McMaster’s successor, a year later

Trump seemingly got along with Mike Pompeo, Tillerson’s successor, but after his 2024 victory he publicly ruled out Pompeo’s candidacy for a spot in his new cabinet and in January had Pompeo’s security detail removed.

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In a way, Rubio was not an obvious pick for Trump.

Rubio has political ambition to be president one day

And he does not see eye to eye with Trump on some issues

He was the co-sponsor of a bill that requires two-thirds of the Senate to ratify a unilateral withdrawal of the US from NATO.

If Trump needs Rubio for the credibility that he brings to his cabinet, Witkoff serves a very different purpose.

Witkoff’s friendship with Trump goes back to the 1980s when he worked as a real-state lawyer at a firm that represented Trump.

The legend goes that the two met at a deli over a ham and cheese sandwich.

I suspect the prominent role that Witkoff is playing in US foreign policy is less about his diplomatic savvy than about the fact that Trump trusts him.

My guess is that Witkoff is no more than a messenger for Trump who is running US foreign policy by himself.

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If Witkoff is just Trump’s mouthpiece on foreign policy, then we might be able to glean from what he says about Trump’s true intentions.

Following his latest meeting with Putin, Witkoff said that “we might be on the verge of something very important for the world”

He reportedly said during a debrief at the White House that the “fastest way” to stop the war in Ukraine is to cede to Russia the 5 Ukrainian regions that Russia has annexed.

There are two things about these pronouncements that are deeply troubling, regardless where your sympathies lie in the war.

One, it took Witkoff 3 meetings with Putin to establish what is obvious to every observer of the Russia-Ukraine war about Putin’s redlines.

Two, regardless how Trump might feel about Putin’s demand of international recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia, there is no chance that Ukraine, Europe, or the US Congress for that matter, would agree to it right now.

What these pronouncements by Witkoff say to me is that Trump is no closer to stopping the war in Ukraine than he was three months ago.

Trump has invested considerable political capital into ending the war in Ukraine.

His overture to Russia over the past three months has ruptured trans-Atlantic relations and provided fodder to his critics at home.

The million dollar question is how much longer can Trump hold back the Russia hawks in Washington.

Put differently, how much more time does Trump have before he has to take away the carrot and use the stick with Putin.

And Zelensky certainly is not making it easy for Trump.

Despite a drop in US aid, Ukrainian defense, with the help of drones, is  for the most part holding up.

The Russians are advancing in eastern Ukraine but it is a slow and grinding advance.

After months of fighting, Russian forces still don’t have full control of Toretsk and Chasiv Yar.

And the coming battles for the control of Lyman, Siversk and Pokrovsk will take many months.

What’s more, Ukraine's parliament overwhelmingly voted this week to extend martial law until August, delaying the timing of new elections that the US and Russia have been pushing for.

Trump campaigned on ending the war in Ukraine.

The lack of progress exposes him to increasing attacks that he is allowing Putin to play him for time.

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This current state of play is unsustainable.

I see two possible paths in the coming weeks.

Both paths will lead to an increase in geopolitical risks.

In the first path, the Russia hawks take over the driver’s seat.

• Rubio said two weeks ago in Europe that the US is running out of patience with Moscow

• He said that Russia has weeks and not months to demonstrate its intention with respect to peace.

• Rubio and others inside the Trump cabinet could mount a challenge to Trump’s policy on the Ukraine war and push for a more aggressive approach to dealing with Russia.  

• This path would increase geopolitical risk and support gold prices.

  
  

In the second path, Trump, to buy time for his Russia policy, will continue his combative approach to China over the trade war.

• It could be argued that the escalating tension between the US and China over the past two weeks is evidence that Trump has already chosen the second path.

• All of a sudden, Trump’s appeasement of Putin looks smart, as though it was always calculated to isolate China.

• This path is also bullish for gold as geopolitical risk mounts.

  
  

During the 2024 elections Trump accused Biden of driving the world toward WW3.

What the last 3 months have shown is that peace is easier said than done.  

AND what about Iran?

Is Trump so desperate for peace that he is willing to make a deal with Iran’s Islamic regime that is the largest sponsor of terrorists in the world?

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Following his meeting with Iran on April 2, Witkoff said in an interview on Fox that the discussions with Iran aim to limit Iranian uranium enrichment at 3.67 % for civil nuclear purposes.

This immediately triggered an outcry among Republicans as the 3.67% cap was a key component of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama administration that Trump had walked away from.

12 hours later, Witkoff climbed down and said that an agreement would require Iran to stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program altogether.

Axios ran a story about a situation room meeting held at the White House on Tuesday to discuss the Iran negotiations.

It reported an “intense debate” at the meeting with Witkoff and Vance said to be in favor of a compromise with Iran while Rubio and Walz argued for a “maximalist” approach.

Is it possible that Witkoff was simply making the case at the meeting on behalf of Trump?

The New York Times reported this week that Trump had waved off a planned Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons program in May.

Whoever is responsible for the leak to the Times clearly has doubts about whether Trump has the stomach to go through with such an attack.

No doubt, Trump has a difficult decision to make on Iran.

A strike on Iran might end the dialogue with Moscow that Trump has been so eager to re-establish.

Two weeks ago, the Russian deputy foreign minister warned that a US strike on Iran would be met by “catastrophic consequences”, a veiled threat that could be read as signaling Moscow’s willingness to come to Tehran’s aid.

Trump has to also contend with the isolationist wing of the MAGA movement.

Tucker Carlson declared last week that a strike on Iran would mean that, "Thousands of Americans would die. We’d lose the war that follows. Nothing would be more destructive to our country”

There is also the economy to consider.

Oil price could spike on an Iran attack, especially if it lasts a week as the Israeli plan envisages according to the New York Times.

It is understandable why Trump might want to buy some time on Iran but this does not change the fact that Iran is on the verge of nuclear threshold.

The risks of taking action on Iran can be exaggerated. Certainly, that thousands of Americans would die is laughable.

For one thing, Iran is already on its knees, with its economy in a freefall and its proxies in the region greatly weakened.

It has no ability to hit back.

Moreover, if Israel takes the lead on the attack, it would remove the excuse for China and Russia to get involved.

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Timing is everything:

I think it was a mistake for Trump to focus the first hundred days on his presidency on trying to end the Ukraine war instead of dealing with Iran

Ending the war in Ukraine is complicated.

In comparison, taking out Iran’s nuclear weapons program could be a walk in the park.

My prediction is that Trump will make a pivot soon.

The two-month ultimatum Trump gave to Iran ends on May 19.

I will be holding my breath until then.