DavidJan 27, 20221 minSCMP: China urges US to respect Russia’s concerns in stand-off over UkraineMy quick reaction: Wow. The Chinese foreign ministered called on the US Secretary of State earlier today to respect Russia’s security...
DavidJan 27, 20222 minUS non-petroleum trade deficit hit an all-time highAn overheating economy usually has two classic markers: rising inflation and a deteriorating trade balance. This is because when demand...
DavidJan 20, 20223 minLatest hate crime data suggest America suffers not from racism but from hostile envyDoes America suffer from racism or reverse racism? The data paint a compelling picture.
DavidJan 18, 20221 minJerusalem Post: COVID 4th jab - Antibodies rise, not enough to prevent Omicron infectionAccording to preliminary results of a Sheba Medical Center study, Omicron is very infectious even among individuals with 4 shots
DavidJan 7, 20221 minMonster outperformance of US stocks in 2021US stocks outperformed non-US stocks by whopping 20 percentage points in 2021. What does this mean for the USD in 2022?
DavidDec 31, 20211 minNikkei: China's mandarins face 25% pay cut as 'alchemy' fadesThis story may be sensational but it makes sense. If true, it does not bode well for the Chinese economy in 2022.
DavidDec 16, 20211 minEuropean natural gas storage at just 60% fullEuropean nat gas price is up 40% this month. Politicians and market remain unprepared for this well-telegraphed train-wreck in slow motion
DavidDec 2, 20212 minSouth Africa's Omicron related hospital admissions are increasing more slowly than new casesThe latest Omicron data out of South Africa continues to suggest that the new variant has just as good a chance of being good news
DavidNov 26, 20212 minOcean freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam have collapsedThe foreign rate market is telling us that things are going to get much worse in Europe.
DavidNov 24, 20211 minThe Hill: Schumer-McConnell dial down the debt ceiling dramaThis story reinforces my view that the USD and 10y US real yields are both heading even higher
DavidNov 18, 20214 minThe rise of the China-Iran-Russia axisAccording to a new Axios report, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan this week "floated to his Israeli counterpart Eyal Hulata" a...
DavidNov 11, 20212 minDid you know: Market correlations with US 10y real yields are strengtheningPredictit.com shows Brainard's odds are going up. In case you are wondering, I am still happy to take the other side of the bet.
DavidNov 4, 20212 minThe fallout from Virginia's election for financial markets I explain why Virginia's election result has increased downside risk to the 2022 US growth outlook. Debt ceiling is just 4 weeks away...
DavidNov 3, 20211 minFederalist: Wisconsin Investigation Uncovers Potential Tip Of A Voting Fraud IcebergYoungkin's decisive win in Virginia will help give traction to this developing story in Wisconsin. Biden won Wisconsin by only 20,000...
DavidOct 8, 20211 minThe WSJ: The IRS Wants to Look at Your Bank AccountMy quick reaction: The Biden administration wants banks to report cashflow data on any ordinary bank account with a balance of greater...
DavidOct 6, 20212 minWho are the victims and offenders of hate crimes in the US US hate crimes reached a 12-year high last year. I crushed the numbers and you might be surprised by what I found ...
DavidSep 28, 20211 minDW: Germany's Green Party and the FDP: Two kingmakers poles apartMy quick take: Market reaction to Sunday’s German election was muted. I was a little surprised that the euro and DAX did not do better...
DavidSep 17, 20211 minNYT: Why Only 28 Percent of Young Black New Yorkers Are VaccinatedMy quick reaction: So much for the popular narrative that anti-vaxxers are mainly white, Republican, Trump supporters. Link to article at...
DavidAug 31, 20211 minWired: Lina Khan’s Theory of the Facebook Antitrust Case Takes ShapeMy quick reaction: This is a big story that has not gotten enough media coverage. As I have bee saying for a while, going after big tech...
DavidAug 28, 20211 minSCMP: Why China is in no rush to endorse the Taliban in AfghanistanMy Quick Reaction: There is a lot of speculation in the media about what China will do in Afghanistan after the departure of the US. This...