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    • May 3

Strategic Asymmetry and Geopolitical Risks


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ian.hamilton
May 12

Love the long term thinking and analysis you have put into this.

Thanks

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davidwoo101
May 13
Replying to

Thanks Ian

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CTC
May 05

How do you think Biden's political calculations factor into this equation? Do you think the Dems are worried about states like Michigan and therefore he tries to restrain Israel? Or does Biden worry more about big Israel donors and thus tacitly approve a Rafah invasion? Do you have a sense how this administration weighs those two possible political consequences -


Will Biden factor in oil prices too in such a calculation? If oil goes too high, does Biden do everything possible to bring it down? (by letting Iran get away with bad behavior) It hasn't reached 2022 levels, but never say never.


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davidwoo101
May 06
Replying to

Michigan was a factor a few weeks ago but the anti-Israel college campus protests have made this a national issue. I think Biden's priority is to ensure that the problem does not drag on and fester. I hope this means that he will begrudgingly give Israel the greenlight to enter Rafah with the condition that it wiill last no more than 3 weeks. The biggest Jewish donor to the Democratic Party and to the progressive causes is George Soros who is funding most of the pro-Palestinian protests and is the biggest anti-Zionist I know.

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Wei
May 04

David, are you still bullish on bitcoin and crypto ?

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davidwoo101
May 04
Replying to

No. Bitcoin ETFs have been seeing outflows as you know. I am more neutral after the NFP

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jason
May 04

David, do you think these events will drive up LMT, Raython , and gold to the same degree ( or near) as Oil?

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davidwoo101
May 04
Replying to

Hard to say. It depends on how long the war lasts and whether Iran gets involved directly. Oil is the first best,, followed by gold and defense contractors

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