JohnAug 18, 20232 minHonest BoardLower stocks meant a gain for our asset allocation and equity portfolios. Lower everything meant a loss for our absolute return portfolio.
JohnAug 11, 20233 minWeekly roundupTrends continued as markets refused to add new risk (it's August). This meant Chinese markets lagged as weak data was taken at face value.
JohnAug 4, 20232 minWeekly roundupWhen S&P downgraded the US 12 years ago, bonds rallied. This week Fitch downgraded the US and bonds sold off. Is anyone in DC listening?
JohnJul 28, 20233 minWeekly roundupFear of investing in China may have been replaced by fear of missing out. The bull case for oil may be even stronger.
JohnJul 21, 20233 minWeekly roundupInflation may have peaked everywhere, unless something changes. Something changed in Ukraine, and defensive stocks were in big demand.
JohnJul 14, 20233 minWeekly roundupThe break lower in the Dollar suggest that the long term trend is lower. It probably won't be a straight line though. We like gold for now.
JohnJul 7, 20233 minWeekly roundupAnother bad week for RUB may mean further action to support oil prices. This would be bad news for equities, but good news for JPY.
JohnJun 30, 20234 minWeekly roundupThe Dollar betrays consumer weakness despite a near perfect week of data for equities. Bidenomics to the rescue?
JohnJun 23, 20233 minWeekly roundupChina's reopening had another false start, and yet central banks are already hiking more than expected. This could get ugly for the Fed.
JohnJun 16, 20233 minWeekly roundupWhat causes gold, oil, bonds, stocks and the VIX all to go up? Something significant we think, and we've added risk accordingly.
JohnJun 9, 20233 minWeekly roundupLeopards were spotted both in and out of action in Ukraine. We like owning gold in case of US escalation, and USD/BRL puts for capitulation.
JohnJun 2, 20233 minWeekly roundupThe debt ceiling deal appears to have been mostly a benefit for the rich. You can tell it isn't an election year.
JohnMay 26, 20232 minWeekly roundupVarious wars are shaping markets at the moment. A debt ceiling truce has been called for now. We'll see if it lasts the weekend.
JohnMay 19, 20233 minWeekly roundupGoings on in DC were the main driver of prices this week. It wasn't the debt ceiling though - AI was the big story.
JohnMay 12, 20233 minWeekly roundupConflicting reports on a Ukrainian counteroffensive keep markets in the range. The trends we see are in regional rotations.
JohnMay 5, 20233 minWeekly roundupWe were all set to joke that Cinco de Mayo is Spanish for 'Sell in May', but payrolls had other ideas. Banks still had a bad week though.
JohnApr 28, 20233 minWeekly roundupStrong earnings helped big tech to rescue the market (if not FRC). The rotation from China to India appears to have begun in earnest.
JohnApr 21, 20233 minWeekly roundupMarkets justified their volatility sales by not moving. Politicians hate inactivity, and in assets where they got involved, prices fell.
JohnApr 14, 20232 minWeekly roundupUS data did not move the needle, so positioning is the best explanation for price action. Changing supply chains in Asia is the main action.
JohnApr 7, 20233 minWeekly roundupA good week for stagflation trades. INR and equity volatility look cheap.