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INVESTMENT FORUM WITH A PROVEN TRACK RECORD

ECONOMICS/POLITICS/GEOPOLITICS  

INVESTMENT FORUM

WITH A PROVEN TRACK RECORD

ECONOMICS/POLITICS/GEOPOLITICS  

Fewer H20 = More Oil

Fewer H20 = More Oil

China tech is surging, as it seems companies have been told to stop buying H20s. Less efficient chips will require more energy to keep pace in the AI race.

234

0

0

Aug 24, 2025

Fewer H20 = More Oil

Fewer H20 = More Oil

China tech is surging, as it seems companies have been told to stop buying H20s. Less efficient chips will require more energy to keep pace in the AI race.

234

0

0

Aug 24, 2025

Fewer H20 = More Oil

Fewer H20 = More Oil

China tech is surging, as it seems companies have been told to stop buying H20s. Less efficient chips will require more energy to keep pace in the AI race.

234

0

0

Aug 24, 2025

How Much Time Left in this Semiconductor Cycle

How Much Time Left in this Semiconductor Cycle

Continued US economic hegemony require that the US wins the AI war against China. The market is pricing a US victory but what could go wrong? I explain why I am still short QQQ.

313

4

1

Aug 22, 2025

How Much Time Left in this Semiconductor Cycle

How Much Time Left in this Semiconductor Cycle

Continued US economic hegemony require that the US wins the AI war against China. The market is pricing a US victory but what could go wrong? I explain why I am still short QQQ.

313

4

1

Aug 22, 2025

How Much Time Left in this Semiconductor Cycle

How Much Time Left in this Semiconductor Cycle

Continued US economic hegemony require that the US wins the AI war against China. The market is pricing a US victory but what could go wrong? I explain why I am still short QQQ.

313

4

1

Aug 22, 2025

MACRO STOCK SCREEN

A tool to find stocks that should benefit from our macro views (or yours!). Includes a technical signal to screen for interesting trade candidates.

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OUR TRACK RECORD

We trade our macro views transparently and provide daily updates of how we are doing relative to our benchmark of SPY.

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Boxing Day special - 2025 predictions

Boxing Day special - 2025 predictions

Our idea for what the DOGE will do on 1st April, and 20 other predictions for 2025 that you probably won't see elsewhere.

443

0

3

Dec 26, 2024

Fewer H20 = More Oil

Fewer H20 = More Oil

China tech is surging, as it seems companies have been told to stop buying H20s. Less efficient chips will require more energy to keep pace in the AI race.

234

0

0

Aug 24, 2025

Fewer H20 = More Oil

Fewer H20 = More Oil

China tech is surging, as it seems companies have been told to stop buying H20s. Less efficient chips will require more energy to keep pace in the AI race.

234

0

0

Aug 24, 2025

Stock Trading Examples

Stock Trading Examples

A review of stock trading with examples. Why stocks are safer than cash in the long run, how to calculate beta, how to size trades, and a bottom up analysis of VZ and AMC.

142

2

1

Jun 11, 2025

How Much Time Left in this Semiconductor Cycle

How Much Time Left in this Semiconductor Cycle

Continued US economic hegemony require that the US wins the AI war against China. The market is pricing a US victory but what could go wrong? I explain why I am still short QQQ.

313

4

1

Friday, August 22, 2025

Honest Board

Honest Board

Last updated 2024-01-19. Our portfolio was up 2% compared to just 0.2% for its benchmark.

160

1

0

Jan 12, 2024

How Much Time Left in this Semiconductor Cycle

How Much Time Left in this Semiconductor Cycle

Continued US economic hegemony require that the US wins the AI war against China. The market is pricing a US victory but what could go wrong? I explain why I am still short QQQ.

313

4

1

Friday, August 22, 2025

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METHODOLOGY:

1: Excess returns are calculated daily using US closing prices. 

2. Portfolios are rebalanced on Mondays at New York open, based on allocation strategies discussed in our Beat the Market video on Sunday.  

3: The calibration of our risk exposure is based on our target of annual excess return of 250 basis points and information ratio of 2. 

< 10 mins
How Much Time Left in this Semiconductor Cycle
How Much Time Left in this Semiconductor Cycle

Continued US economic hegemony require that the US wins the AI war against China. The market is pricing a US victory but what could go wrong? I explain why I am still short QQQ.

313

4

1

Friday, August 22, 2025

How Much Time Left in this Semiconductor Cycle
How Much Time Left in this Semiconductor Cycle

Continued US economic hegemony require that the US wins the AI war against China. The market is pricing a US victory but what could go wrong? I explain why I am still short QQQ.

313

4

1

Friday, August 22, 2025

Fewer H20 = More Oil
Sunday strategy video
30 mins
Fewer H20 = More Oil

China tech is surging, as it seems companies have been told to stop buying H20s. Less efficient chips will require more energy to keep pace in the AI race.

Fewer H20 = More Oil
Fewer H20 = More Oil

China tech is surging, as it seems companies have been told to stop buying H20s. Less efficient chips will require more energy to keep pace in the AI race.

Fewer H20 = More Oil
Fewer H20 = More Oil

China tech is surging, as it seems companies have been told to stop buying H20s. Less efficient chips will require more energy to keep pace in the AI race.

234

0

0

Sunday, August 24, 2025

Leverage without leverage

Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch tell us that diversification is bad. We explain what really happens when you diversify, and how we use it.

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3

Jan 15, 2024

686

MORE BUYERS OR SELLERS?
 Monday fast money

Chinese data suggests Covid testing is being reduced

Asymptomatic cases in China have begun to diverge from symptomatic cases.

206

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4

Dec 6, 2022

ON THE RADAR
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