top of page

More Buyers or Sellers: Quick Trade Update



No trades to report, but I thought it would be helpful to explain why.


Below is a chart comparing the price action in SPY over the past 6 months, to an analogous series over 12 months leading into September 2008, only sampled every two days so that they line up (things go twice as fast now don't they?).

Source: Yahoo

In short, today feels very much like late September 2008 to me.


The CPI report on Friday was perhaps the trigger that might cause the collapse, but I think the underlying cause is crypto this time.


My thesis is that the high cost of energy is killing energy intensive Bitcoin, and with lots of leverage in that space, we're getting some margin calls now. This could mean a vicious cycle of selling so I don't want to step in front of that.


Good luck.


303 views11 comments

Recent Posts

See All

11 Comments


John - very interesting insight! As always, I appreciate your work and writings!


Like
Replying to

Thank you Ray.

Like

Unknown member
Jun 13, 2022

John - good analysis, wouldn't you say that the CPI report is what triggered the crypto collapse though, which is triggering the new collapse in equities and bonds? Especially if we consider how crypto was being propped up by whales (if we are toe assume that), then the CPI report is what sent them running

Like
Replying to

Yes, that is what I was trying to say. CPI was the trigger; crypto is where the leverage exists and so the collapse occurs.

Like

Thanks for this update John. That is quite the chart!

Like
Replying to

Yes, although without the crypto/CPI story I wouldn't put too much stock in it alone. Incidentally, the fact that the big move in crypto is on a Monday is suggestive that it is margin calls. You get a bleed to new lows over the weekend that triggers the margin calls first thing Monday morning.

Like

Talking about crypto, views on Celsius and its implications on the market?

Like
Replying to

Okay I read a bit more about Celsius and it appears it is a bit more naive than I imagined it must be. As I understand it there is an ecosystem built up to deliver yield on cryptocurrencies. It seems that this is generated via futures contango and counterparty credit risk. In the former case, that goes away when too many people try to capture it (unlike currencies where buying high yielders doesn't cause their yield to decline). What we are seeing now is that the latter was not risk free.


It seems very similar to the structured note business, only without the regulation and $2,000/hr lawyers to work on the risk disclosures. I believe the SEC is already arguing…

Like

Maybe it is time to change the name to more sellers than buyers :)

Like
Replying to

Fixing the title was my 1st item for the new website which will be launched soon.

Like

Subscribers please log in to view the content

bottom of page