I think you agree that the risk of the 5th wave is receding..., so, do you think the supply chain bottleneck problems can be solved? And if so, then do you think we finally can agree that inflation is "transitory"?
Dear David, what you talk about the real yield to go up are long term trends, however, how do you think about short term? Will real start to move from now on? In addition, for supply and demand in the market, Yellen says US treasury may lower issuance and also lower the duration in 1Q22 will this ease the pressure for yield to go up? In addition, how's the power of pension fund buying to affect the yield? Lots of FICC players believe pension can iron the long term yield.
Please see my response above. Issuance depends on the size of the budget deficit and not what Yellen says. As I noted, the pace of pension buying is normal. In fact the immunization trade is much less frequent given the equity rally has ensured very few companies still have a deficit there
Hi David. It would be great if you provided asset allocation implications rather than day trading suggestions.
for example, instead of shorting TIP, why not suggest reducing duration / keeping more shorter term paper or cash, or shifting foreign assets back to USD based ones?
also, how about instead of buying VXX and trying to make money on negative carry market timing, why not just reduce equity risk?
i spent a long time working at banks before moving to buyside and it’s been a long journey to unlearn the day trading that works as a market maker for personal investments, which benefit from anything but.
love that you have this outlet after your institutional life.
Michael, Thank you for your suggestion. Accountability is an important goal for me and this is why I tend to focus on specific trades as opposed to general asset allocation. Also, both institutional investors (mutual funds; hedge funds; SWFs) and Reddit traders (together they represent more than half of my subscriber base) are looking for specific and actionable ideas. This blog is 4 months old. As it grows, I hope that we will be able to cater to the requirements of more people.
Hi David, great call on PFE.
Hi David,
I think you agree that the risk of the 5th wave is receding..., so, do you think the supply chain bottleneck problems can be solved? And if so, then do you think we finally can agree that inflation is "transitory"?
Dear David, what you talk about the real yield to go up are long term trends, however, how do you think about short term? Will real start to move from now on? In addition, for supply and demand in the market, Yellen says US treasury may lower issuance and also lower the duration in 1Q22 will this ease the pressure for yield to go up? In addition, how's the power of pension fund buying to affect the yield? Lots of FICC players believe pension can iron the long term yield.
Hi David. It would be great if you provided asset allocation implications rather than day trading suggestions.
for example, instead of shorting TIP, why not suggest reducing duration / keeping more shorter term paper or cash, or shifting foreign assets back to USD based ones?
also, how about instead of buying VXX and trying to make money on negative carry market timing, why not just reduce equity risk?
i spent a long time working at banks before moving to buyside and it’s been a long journey to unlearn the day trading that works as a market maker for personal investments, which benefit from anything but.
love that you have this outlet after your institutional life.