- Oct 17, 2021

Money Game with David Woo: COVID's 5th wave?

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14 Comments

Oct 24, 2021

Hello David, if 5th wave of COVID comes, Pfizer will be beneficiary, however, can Moderna and BNTX also benefit? In addition, if 5th wave covid comes, will Oil price and Interest rate been negatively impacted significantly?

Unknown member

Oct 24, 2021

Replying to

Hi James, Moderna’s booster has not yet been approved by the FDA. Its valuation is also less attractive than Pfizer’s. That said, given it is a pure COVID play, its upside is greater if indeed the 5th wave unfolds the way I expect. I don’t think that the 5th wave will be as scary as the 4th as governments will simply roll out the booster to everyone (thus I like vaccine makers. I think the Fed will announce tapering at its next meeting on Nov 2-3. Check out my new podcast for my outlook on oil. David

Danielle Goldfarb

Oct 19, 2021

Fascinating analysis of the impact of antivaxxers on the labor market.

john

Oct 18, 2021

Regarding the increase in quit rates, it is being referred to as 'the great resignation'

Captain Barnacles

Oct 18, 2021

https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1435850463237193732

This chart from Israeli data agrees with you - you'll have to look at the thread for more context - provided the thread as the link to the paper is not to one in English, but I suspect there will be an English language version if you can find it. One thing that might ameliorate the issue of Covid running rampant again as vaccines diminish is that there are benefits to getting (mildly I hope) infected.

David

Oct 18, 2021

Replying to

Hi Captain, as you know I now live in Israel. My view is very much informed by the experience of Israel. You are right that Israeli research suggests that immunity from covid infection is stronger than from vaccine. Indeed, this is the biggest risk to my view. 17% of Americans are known to have caught Covid and perhaps the true number is at least double that. My forecast of a 5th wave would be wrong if herd immunity has already been established in the US. That said, due to mutation, the fact that you were sick from alpha may not help you too much with delta. This research still needs to be validated

James Pegum

Oct 18, 2021

Hi David, given that COVID infections are on the rise, and likely to continue, I'd be interested in your data based view on the level of hospital admissions & deaths layered over your charts. Are we seeing the hospitalisation rate / deaths trending in a similar way prior to the vaccination drive as is trending on the lead into your 5th wave?

David

Oct 18, 2021

Replying to

My 5th wave hypothesis is based on the idea of diminished vaccine effectiveness against infection. In general, vaccines remain effective against severe illness and deaths after 6 months. That said, during this summer 60% of the hospitalized patients in Israel were fully vaccinated.

Money Game with David Woo: COVID's 5th wave?

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