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    • Mar 13, 2022

Money Game: Russia's War or America's War?


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19 Kommentare

JP Louw
16. März 2022

Hi David, RUB a buy?

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Unknown member
16. März 2022
Antwort an

Good question. The Russian current account surplus should improve given nobody wants to sell anything to Russia. The Russian capital account should also improve given the Russians are now very wary of investing their money outside Russia. However, if this war becomes protracted, Putin will have to start printing money to finance a growing budget deficit. I am long ERUS so won’t be adding more Russian exposure, but if I didn’t have ERUS I would consider having a small RUB position

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Jeremy Martin
15. März 2022

Good point David, looks like the box is open. Is there doubt Putin will totally destroy Ukraine?

What does Russia do with a totally destroyed Ukraine? He goes home mission accomplished?

The rest of us continue the sanctions, US supplies Germany with Gas and arms. Hopefully the world helps rebuild Ukraine and Russia continues to decline. Poor outcome that one

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Unknown member
15. März 2022
Antwort an

In my second scenario, Putin will destroy Ukraine completely and occupy all of its eastern part including Kiev. The destruction of the Russian economy by US sanctions will unleash nationalistic fervor in Russia and bring us close to WW3. Everyone loses

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DAVID BAYFIELD
DAVID BAYFIELD
14. März 2022

I agree that America will have a tremendous influence on the outcome of this war; but, to say that this is America's war sounds a little hyperbolic and paternalistic to me. Clearly, the hope, unity, and resolve demonstrated by Ukraine in its resistance to Russian aggression has inspired the world to mobilize on their behalf for obvious humanitarian and moral reasons. Conversely, if Ukraine surrenders it will be when they reach some threshold of unbearable personal, social and economic suffering which overwhelms them. While America through provision of military equipment and humanitarian support, can do much to reduce overall arc of Ukrainian pain both in terms of quantity, quality and duration America is not control of how and where …

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Jeremy Martin
15. März 2022
Antwort an

Putin is in the middle of it. Putin will not step back or surrender. He will destroy all the cities, turn them to rubble. I say its Americas war because they have mostly mobilised the response. Instead of pushing for a neutral Ukraine and solving the problem on Putin's terms they have encouraged the confrontation.

Hopefully sanctions send Russia broke and Putin has to go home, or the Russian people somehow rebel or somehow Putin gets removed from power.

In the long run the world could be a better place if after the conflict is over the west pays to mostly rebuild Ukraine and embraces a new Russia, hence reducing Chinas power, isolating China somewhat, but encouraging China to be…

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Captain Barnacles
Captain Barnacles
14. März 2022

We haven't yet seen what the people of Russia do yet! Many obviously fear becoming prisoners behind an Iron curtain and firewall. Already a disaster for the creative class that brings in significant forex (incl crypto payments) at likely higher economic benefit than energy sales. The level of anger and bitterness towards the Silovki is off the charts ATM. Can still communicate with Telegram for now, but not very useful for marketing and staying connected or receiving payments.

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Unknown member
17. März 2022
Antwort an

We used every trick of the trade to get a trueful answer. I will explain the methodology in my next video

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Jeremy Martin
13. März 2022

Yes I think its Americas war. Biden has conned Russia and Ukraine to go for it and now will see it through regardless of the cost, in the hope of destroying Putin. The rest of us will pay the price to see Putin removed from the world stage. I'm ok with that, except for the death and destruction. Other thoughts, will Biden be successful, and can we stomach watching Ukraine destroyed?

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Unknown member
14. März 2022
Antwort an

Jeremy, yes, as much as it is difficult to watch the needless suffering and destruction, I am more concerned what Putin will do next. What does a desperate man pushed against the wall do? I hope the Americans have thought through this one because they could be opening a Pandora’s box.

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