Money Game: How not to lose your shirt in 2022
Want to read more?
Subscribe to davidwoounbound.com to keep reading this exclusive post.
top of page
22 Comments
Subscribers please log in to view the content
bottom of page
Subscribe to davidwoounbound.com to keep reading this exclusive post.
Hi David, my only concern with keeping cash is what if Dec-21 Fed minutes turns out to be a head fake like Dec-18, when Fed plot was showing 3 rate hikes in 2019 and the central bank ended up delivering 3 rate cuts + QE. Agreed that inflation is now a lot higher compare to 2018-19, but the US economy is a lot more leveraged. I think 3-4 rate hikes with balance sheet runoff in 2022 is just a pipe dream.
So will 25% in TBT and the Shaken, not stirred NFT do the job for my bond portfolio?
;-)
Dear David,
(1)From Equity/Bond/Cash 45%/25%/30% portfolio position, you underweight Equity/Bond to the lower end of your rules. Can we say the real reason behind is because you see real yield has more room to go within 3 months?
(2)If you see there might be 75 bps for 10 year real yield, does it mean 10 year yield will go to 2.25-2.5% if we fix inflation numbers.
(3)In addition, how to roughly get 75 bps as reference and why it might come so soon?
Great thanks
That should say annual rebalancing.
25% stocks, 25% bonds, 25% gold, 25% cash with an unlimited rebalancing. Historically it's generated returns a little lower than the 60/40 portfolio without the big drawdowns. I could also ask if you would substitute a portion of cash in your new portfolio with gold.