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    • Oct 17, 2022

More Buyers or Sellers: Whoops, I'm an independent


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Stuart
Stuart
Oct 19, 2022

Great post as always, you gents often refer to the predictit polls which are the betting odds. Presumably you have more faith in these rather than opinion polls, and if so, can I ask why ? (GOP well ahead currently on Predctit for The Senate)

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John
Oct 19, 2022
Replying to

The conspiracy theorist in me is wondering whether the CFTC decision to stop Predictit from operating is because they were pressured by someone who prefers people to believe the polls.

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sam omar
sam omar
Oct 18, 2022

John. Please share any thoughts on this company RIG. Seems to be in major accumulation based on volume data with a bullish Divergence on the Chaikin Oscillator.

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John
Oct 18, 2022
Replying to

It certainly looks like there is not too much positioning in the stock. The recent price action is fairly constructive, but it doesn't look like it is about to break higher imminently. The main issue I have with this stock is that it really hasn't gone anywhere in the last couple of years even though the rest of the oil sector has rallied. The lack of dividend may be one factor that counts against them, but perhaps more likely is that if oil is around $60, the deep water drilling that RIG specialises in is not economic. They might be doing poorly now because on the time frame for investments to make sense, the price of oil is too low.…


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Robertp123
Oct 17, 2022

John, regarding your statement "observation is that during presidential election years, we see the number of people identifying as independent consistently fall." I switched to independent after Trump election, and my understanding is that when you vote in a Presidential election, an independently registered voter who votes for either a Democrat or Republican Pres. candidate AUTOMATICALLY is moved into the party of who they voted for? (I could be wrong.) If I am right, would that automatic movement account for the reduction of Independent voters immediately following a Presidential election? TIA

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Robertp123
Oct 17, 2022
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Thanks

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