This Week's Market Miss

The S&P 500's 30% Growth Is an Illusion

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David Woo's weekly Macro Angle. The consensus view, where it breaks, and what it means for your portfolio.

Earnings look unstoppable. Bond yields look inexplicable. They are the same story, and the market is misreading both.

S&P 500 earnings are running 30% above a year ago, but strip out one-off tariff refunds worth an estimated $160 billion and the accounting flattery of the AI capex boom, and the growth story looks very different. Meanwhile a $42 billion Treasury auction just cleared at 4.683%, the highest 10-year yield since 2007, with jobs falling and inflation cooling. What connects them: shrinking savings, surging investment demand, and investors paying any price for stocks while demanding ever more to hold bonds. David breaks down the illusion, what is really driving yields, and where he is positioned.

Chain Reaction

BONDSHighest 10-year auction yield since 2007, with growth slowing and inflation falling.

FISCALA $2 trillion deficit at trend growth. The structural deficit is still deteriorating.

FXChina has halved its Treasury holdings. If Japan brings capital home, the problem gets much bigger.

EQUITIESEarnings beat on one-off tariff refunds. The non-AI growth story is set to slow in Q3.

AIToken prices are falling faster than volumes are growing. That is a problem for the entire capex story.

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The Analysts

David Woo

Founder

PhD economist. Former head of global rates, FX, and EM strategy at one of Wall Street's largest banks, where the world's biggest investors paid for his views. Now he publishes them here.

John Hopkinson

Trade Strategist

PhD in Mathematics from MIT. Two decades building and running quantitative trading strategies on Wall Street. He turns the macro view into trades.

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