This Week's Market Miss

What's the Market Missing About Oil?

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David Woo's weekly Macro Angle. The consensus view, where it breaks, and what it means for your portfolio.

The market thinks a narrower Iran campaign means Trump folds sooner. It means the opposite: this campaign is built to last.

Wall Street assumes surging oil forces another Trump retreat, just like April. But round two is different. The strikes are concentrated on one narrow objective, keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, and that makes the campaign far more sustainable, both militarily and politically. A campaign that can endure raises the threshold for Trump to blink. If round two is only just beginning, the top in oil is not in.

Chain Reaction

OILA narrower war is a longer war. More upside risk, not less. The top is likely not in.

BONDSHigher oil piles onto real yields that are already near expansion highs.

EQUITIESRising oil plus surging yields. Stocks are in bigger trouble than the market realizes.

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The Analysts

David Woo

Founder

PhD economist. Former head of global rates, FX, and EM strategy at one of Wall Street's largest banks, where the world's biggest investors paid for his views. Now he publishes them here.

John Hopkinson

Trade Strategist

PhD in Mathematics from MIT. Two decades building and running quantitative trading strategies on Wall Street. He turns the macro view into trades.

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