Why is Russia winning the economic war?
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Yes very interesting he sacked his childhood friend. I'm sure he's already lost most of any backing he had in the eastern Ukraine where there's a lot of ethnic Russians and it's been destroyed. The mostly ethnic Ukrainians in the west is a different story imo. We'll see if that changes as Putin heads that way.
Trying to stay constructive and realistic here. Why would Putin want to give up what he's "paid for" for lack of a better term? Putin has just about everything he asked for before the invasion with the exception of one thing. For Ukraine to disarm. That in my opinion is what any upcoming agreement will involve and I don't see how NATO accepts that.
Why guess if it is possible to discuss with Putin's Russia. An acceptable outcome would be Putin gives up his claim on Ukraine and has a peace deal with Ukraine and NATO, whatever that looks like.
What would he want in return? Recognition that he is running a perfectly good economy, country better that most western Governments (so says David) and what else.
There was an opportunity to sort this out but the EU pushed the point too far. So an agreement would be some place better for Russia than what was on the table before the invasion.
Or we accept it is OK for people like Putin to take what they want with force death and destruction.
Open to criticism but here my two cents on your possible outcomes: - The world can't stop buying Russian oil unless new supply comes on. That's why we're making nice with Maduro. The US and Canada can start drilling but oil companies would want higher prices/tax incentives to make it work economically, it's politically unpopular and it would take months to do. - As to NATO going in to join the fight where is the oil going to come from right away? We're already draining the SPR and Europe is going to be freezing in a few months unless they get gas levels higher. On top of that the odds of nuclear conflict increase greatly. And what's to stop China from …
We all agree we are all brilliant with hindsight. The question is, what should be done about the war now.
Those who can, have to decide if its ok to let Putin destroy a substantial percentage of Ukraine.
They have to determine, if they let Putin continue, when or where will they combine to stop him.
Or are they betting Putin will stop of his own accord. What are the odds an that happening David?
No one knows where Putin is taking this current strategy.
Possible out comes: Putin continues until he has control of a portion of Ukraine, until he has control of all of Ukraine, and a bit of Moldova (we are here already so might as well…