What's Powell going to say at Jackson Hole?
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James, I think the chances of Europe stopping oil import from Russia completely by December is no longer on the cards (25% chance). I have been shocked by Iran’s backing away from its longstanding demand for delisting the Revolutionary guards from the US terrorist designation. I cant explain it but it certainly increases the chance of a deal (60%). All this suggests in the very short term, perhaps upside for oil price is limited. However, the dark horse is the major Russian offensive against Kharkiv that may get bloody… I think US consumers will be fine for now.
Dear David, May I ask a basic question about inflation in China. In the Core CPI and money supply chart, how come China has relatively high in change in M2 last 32 months compared to others, but the inflation is so low so far. How to better understand this？ Thanks, Wilson
Dear David,
2 sets of questions needed your advice.
(A) About Oil
(1) Do you see EU will implement the embargo on 12/5? (2) Do you see JCPOA will be re-affirm implicitly or explicitly? (3) Do you see EU fully prepare for this winter? (4) How do you see the trend for Oil and Natgas?
(B) About US consumption
(1) Do you see US consumption is still resilient but just momentum fading or drop very fast? (2) How do you see the Year End consumption? (3) If for (1) is still resilient, when will we see it breaks or Fed could manage a soft landing?
Cheers,
James