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Honest Board: Trade updates



It was an up and down week for equities that finished on a relatively strong note after a surprisingly strong jobs report. (Well not surprising to everyone.)


There was some debate about whether the seasonality adjustment was distorting the jobs number. The answer to this is probably no, or at least that it doesn't matter because the Fed is still going to react to it. This can be seen in the sustained sell-off in rates, which benefitted our position in TBF.


Source: Yahoo

The US rates curve continued to flatten on the jobs print, but this did not help the Dollar. After strong Eurozone inflation readings, a hawkish ECB on Thursday resulted in a sharp rally in EUR/USD.


The BoE also surprised with a rate hike, and dissenters voting for 50bps.


Do we have a new competition between central banks to see who can be most hawkish?


Fortunately we decided to exit our EUR/USD short on Monday.


Not so fortunate for us was the stellar earnings from XOM, which came just after we took profit on our long position.


You win some, you lose some.


It was a fairly quiet week for the rest of our positions, which rebounded from weakness the prior week.



David's trades:


In David's medium-term portfolio (The Money Game) we took profit in our XOM and short EUR/USD positions on Monday.

Portfolio

Ticker

Date entered

Entry

Last close

Size

Medium term

KWEB

36.54

36.43

​10%

Medium term

CNYB

5.60

5.68

100%

Medium term

DIS

152

142.02

100%

Medium term

CCL

20.25

19.96

50%

Medium term

TBF

16

17

50%

Closed trades year-to-date = 2

Closed trades that made money = 2

Closed trades that lost money = 0

Closed trades that broke even = 0


An archive of our closed trades is available here.


John's trades


In John's short term portfolio (More Buyers or Sellers) we bought CVNA on Monday. This was half our intended position with a larger profit target.

Portfolio

Ticker

Date entered

Entry

Last close

Size

Short term

NNDM

4.62 (avg)

3.72

100%

Short term

CVNA

147.80

150.31

50%

Closed trades year-to-date = 7

Closed trades that made money = 2

Closed trades that lost money = 4

Closed trades that broke even = 1


An archive of our closed trades is available here.


S&P sector portfolio


Sector portfolio relative to SPY: 1.5bps


Cumulative year-to-date relative to SPY: 71bps


An archive of our closed trades is available here.


60/40 portfolio


60/40 portfolio relative to benchmark: 0bps


Cumulative year-to-date relative to benchmark: 82bps


An archive of our closed trades is available here.





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Dear David, Thanks for insight ideas, may I ask some questions:

(1) Can US get a deal with Iran shortly as Biden loosen some sanction on Iran. Personally, I don't think Iran will get back to the table, they just try to buy more time. For Biden, what they want to do might be trying to pull the gasoline price down only at any cost.

(2) I agree with you on ECB's impact. However, ECB also shift their turn very quickly and that only impact on FX market only now? When can we confirm ECB may start to rise rate?

(3) Why real yield goes up another 45-50 bps can't replay equity and yield both go up scenario?


Thanks


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