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Honest Board: Trade updates



This week began with both bonds and equities lower. Bonds rallied through the week, ending up roughly flat, but equities kept going lower. The biggest moves occurred on Thursday and Friday, as the equity sell-off accelerated into the big options expiry. With the expiry behind us, dip buyers may have more chance of success next week.


In addition to bonds, defensive assets such as Gold, CHF, JPY and utilities rallied, though the moves were not large. By contrast, consumer discretionary stocks and crypto-currencies were clobbered. The defensive posture we adopted in both our sector and 60/40 portfolios stood us in good stead, finishing the week ahead of benchmarks by 77bps and 72bps respectively by our estimates.


A Chinese rate cut on Thursday continued the theme of monetary policy divergence to the US. We took advantage of the resultant rally in Chinese stocks to take profit in our KWEB long in the short term portfolio. We maintain the position in our medium term portfolio.


Oil had a relatively quiet week, giving back earlier gains on Friday. Perhaps the UK sending a gesture of 'goodwill' to Ukraine helped to defuse some tension in the energy markets?




Finally, DIS picked the wrong week to release a poor earnings report. The releases of both NFLX and DIS appear to confirm that growth in the streaming sector is weaker than previously expected.




David's trades:


In David's medium-term portfolio (The Money Game) we made no changes this week.

Portfolio

Ticker

Date entered

Entry

Last close

Size

Medium term

KWEB

36.54

36.83

​10%

Medium term

CNYB

5.60

5.69

100%

Medium term

DIS

152

137.41

100%

Medium term

CCL

20.25

20.00

50%

Medium term

TBF

16

16.49

50%

Medium term

XOM

64

72.24

50%