Trade Brief 24th September (MOVE,Anthropic)
Rates went up a lot yesterady, but the move in MOVE was even more impressive. High stock-bond correlation could explain why. High rates could explain why Anthopic’s IPO schedule is slipping. Book up 6.2%, 730bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief 23rd September (Banks, Pacing the frontier, ACN)
Pacing the frontier could be about pushing intelligence down the cost curve. ACN can help Anthopic win the race, but can it get recurring revenue? Book up 6.8%, 750bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief 22nd September (META, ChatGPT, SNDK)
Is Muse the first ‘must have’ app for AI? China seems to have become more interested in ChatGPT than Claude. Competition coming for SNDK? Book up 6.7%, 760bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief 18th September (SMH, Bessent Put)
Semiconductors could be a new version of the TINA trade. There are reasons to believe that the Bessent put expires on 16th October. Book up 5.8%, 670bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief 17th September (Fed, BA)
The Fed’s view on US growth is most clearly bullish for the dollar. BA investors seem to have seen the Fed news 5 minutes early. Will the AMZN/GNRC deal help them? Book up 5.3%, 590bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief – exiting INDA, adding to GLD
Adding to GLD and exiting INDA after the Fed send gold close to 4300 and INDA to my stop.
Trade Brief 16th September (Fed plan)
I ran some numbers on what the Fed should mean for the market. The plan is to buy into a knee-jerk drop in gold. Book up 5.4%, 630bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief 15th September (AI,IAI)
There were big divergeces in both AI and IAI yesterday. High volatility in the former is only helping some in the latter. Book up 5.8%, 640bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief 11th September (XLE, ORCL)
Oil markets are pricing tail risks, but the equity market is not at yet. CPI will be a test of sentiment. ORCL is another AI company demanding prepayment from customers. If everyone does, that seems problematic. Book up 5.2%, 650bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief – stopping out of BABA
Stopping out of BABA as Chinese stocks move relentlessly lower.
