Trade Brief 6th October (AVGO, France, Oil)
The market may be starting to price our view on AVGO. EUR/USD weakness yesterday looked like M&A. Brent is diverging from WTI. Book up 6.1%, 840bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief – Moving from GLD to XLU
Rotating from GLD into XLU as the AI buildout maintains demand for power, while geopolitical risk looks unfavourable for gold in the near term.
Trade Brief 2nd October (France, ACN, COHR)
Higher rates vol may have killed the appeal of earning carry in French vs German bonds. That is the best case scenario. Book up 5.2%, 770bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief 1st October (AI race, JBL)
The dreadnought arms race of the early 20th century has some parallels to the AI race. JBL tells us that the AI race is full steam ahead. Book up 5.0%, 770bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief 30th September (JEF, XLU)
JEF earnings may not translate to other banks as September was a different beast. Rally in utilities could be just month end buying in place of bonds. Book up 5.3%, 770bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief 29th September (MCD, SAP)
MCD is struggling with traffic. Their competitive problems a least look fixable. SAP largely survived a competitive test from META. Book up 5.5%, 760bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief – Buying RTX
Buying RTX as the greenland deal expands its market, and peace in the Mid East looks less likely than escalation.
Trade Brief 25th September (ORCL, Rates)
Delaying a utility project does not offset the efffect on rates of financing it. Rates are caught in a gamma squeeze. Book up 6.0%, 740bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief 24th September (MOVE,Anthropic)
Rates went up a lot yesterady, but the move in MOVE was even more impressive. High stock-bond correlation could explain why. High rates could explain why Anthopic’s IPO schedule is slipping. Book up 6.2%, 730bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief 23rd September (Banks, Pacing the frontier, ACN)
Pacing the frontier could be about pushing intelligence down the cost curve. ACN can help Anthopic win the race, but can it get recurring revenue? Book up 6.8%, 750bps behind SPY.
