Hybrid Theory
Europe is one step closer to a trade war with China after talks failed to deliver convincing concessions on hybrid imports. Meanwhile, Iran’s hybrid warfare campaign threatens another rates shock, just as corporations may be adopting a hybrid strategy on AI.
Liquidité, Volatilité, Utilité
Bond market volatility is beginning to create liquidity events, with OATs getting smoked. Rate-sensitive equities are feeling the heat, but utilities may already have reached a firebreak.
Frozen, Not Fried
Some US troops may soon find themselves in the freezer of Greenland rather than the frying pan of the Middle East. For defense companies, that shift is creating new opportunities. Back home, data-center development is being frozen everywhere from frosty Minnesota to toasty Texas.
Summit Summit Dark Side
The second summit of the summer between Xi and Trump presents the possibility of peace and prosperity. However, the long shadow of geopolitics could prove costly.
No Fear
Climate activists are bringing their existential-fear playbook to AI. The frontier labs have little to fear from regulation, and may even benefit from it. The market doesn’t seem to fear higher oil either. It probably should.
Astra Iacta Est
The launch of Astra marks the beginning of a Roman era where the companies that deploy AI best will succeed. We scan the software universe to see who has met the threat of AI best.
Efficiency Drive
The performance of AI models has reached a point where demand has become turbocharged. Meeting that demand with power constrained makes efficiency key. With the SPR running on empty, energy efficiency could become capital efficiency too.
Big Words, But No Bite
The Treasury is making bold promises against Iran and in support of a dysfunctional bond market. The jawboning may prove inefficacious. Will NVDA change the narrative? Falling inflation threatens to undercut the dollar.
Hypothesis Testing
Earnings forecasts are in a race with real yields to determine the direction of the market. Our hypothesis is that real yields will win. We test this with the data.
A New Route To India
The Suez Canal is once again being celebrated for offering an alternative route to India. This is not a good thing for US assets. Assets on sale are still attractive though.
