Trade Brief 22nd April (Blockade, KWEB)
A blockade to allow the US but not Iran to restock munitions does not point to peace. Trump will want peace with China by July 4th though. Book down 0.2% ytd; 370bps behind SPY.
Events to launch soon
Trade Brief 12th March (ORCL, Oil) – Copy – Copy
ORCL earnings impressed the market, but I see them highlighting a deadly competition in SaaS. The market is starting to priec higher oil for longer. Book down 2.0% ytd; 1200bps behind SPY.
this is a test psot
ORCL earnings impressed the market, but I see them highlighting a deadly competition in SaaS. The market is starting to priec higher oil for longer. Book down 2.0% ytd; 1200bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief 12th March (ORCL, Oil) – Copy
ORCL earnings impressed the market, but I see them highlighting a deadly competition in SaaS. The market is starting to priec higher oil for longer. Book down 2.0% ytd; 1200bps behind SPY.
The (Only) Path to the $2000 Tariff Rebate
VIDEO TRANSCRIPT: The Fed cut rates again this week and signaled that they will cut just one more time in 2026 What are the chances that the Fed might end up not cutting again or even have to hike rates next year? How likely is a significant fiscal priming ahead of the midterm elections next year? What is its only path? What does it mean for your money? …. December is when Wall Street pretends to see the future, and investors pretend to believe it. Pretend or not, where do I stand on the 2026 outlook? For whatever is worth, my outlook for next year is predicated on three predictions: One, I believe the AI bubble will burst next year I went through my reasoning in detail last week so I won’t rehash it here. The bottom-line is that I think intensifying competition will force the market to reassess the expected returns on the ongoing AI-related capex spending (Chart 1) This prediction is the rationale behind my 5s-30s steepener position and my short Nasdaq vs long Nifty 50 position. Two, I believe the war in Ukraine will finally end in 2025. Check out this video from two weeks ago if you are interested in my arguments, but I believe it will be difficult for Ukraine to sustain its war effort with rapidly declining US military and financial support. The draft budget for the Pentagon for fiscal year 2026 and 2027 released this week provides only $400mln for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (Chart 2), a fraction of what Ukraine needs to keep fighting. My prediction that Ukraine has no choice but to accept Trump’s peace plan is why I have established a short position in the December 26 Brent futures. (Chart 3) A deal will see the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil. Fairly quickly I think. Three, I think we might see a further easing, possibly substantial easing, of US fiscal policy in 2026 If this prediction proves to be correct, it will have major economic and market implications. I will discuss the assumptions behind this prediction below ….. Markets were dominated by Trump’s policies in 2025, It is reasonable to assume Trump will continue to cast a long shadow in 2026. To me, the million dollar question is what Trump will do to help his party retain its congressional majorities in the mid-term elections next year As I argued in a previous video, even though Trump’s name is not on the ballot, he has a lot invested in the midterm So much so that Trump’s chief of staff said this week that he will campaign next year like it’s 2024 But campaigning will not be enough to carry the Republicans Odds are almost always stacked against the president’s party in mid-term elections Indeed, the President’s party has lost seats in the house in 20 out of the last 22 midterm elections Trump needs to pull out the big gun if the Republicans were to prevent a Blue Wave And he will have to do it soon This is because if his approval rating keeps falling, he could soon become a liability than asset for his party. (Chart 4) Trump needs a big boost to his approval rating right now. What will it take? ….. In my view, the only thing that could save the Republicans from a Blue Wave in 2026 is Trump’s idea of a tariff rebate. (Chart 5) The rebate is more than just pre-midterm fiscal stimulus It can fundamentally reshape the political economy of protectionism by turning households into beneficiaries of tariffs rather than victims. In doing so, it could flip the inflation narrative, blunt Democratic criticism, and make Trump the sole channel through which households feel relief. Politically, the idea is a slam dunk. The problem is that Trump cannot do it without Congress and the idea is already running into opposition from fiscal conservatives Several Republican Senators said over the past two weeks that the tariff revenue should be used to pay down debt instead of towards a rebate (Chart 6) In the House, Speaker Mike Johnson, who shepherded Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill through Congress, is facing open rebellion from his own caucus. (Chart 7) And Trump certain cannot count on the support of the Democrats who won’t want to give him a political win before the midterms. So how is Trump going to push through the tariff rebate? …. Trump made news on Nov 25 when he suggested that it may be necessary to extend the Obamacare premium subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year (Chart 8) This was a bit rich even for Trump given his refusal to extend these subsidies was why the US had just gone through the longest shutdown in US history. But maybe there’s more here than meets the eye In my view, extending the Obamacare subsidies may be the only viable path to making Trump’s tariff rebate a reality. Maybe Trump sees it the same way. Imagine a new reconciliation bill that extends the Obamacare subsidies by two years and sends a $2000 check to every working American household earning less than $75,000 dollars a year Extending the Obamacare subsidies is Democrats’ #1 policy priority right now If this is on the table, many Democrats would negotiate — especially Senate Democrats facing tight races. The fiscal hawks among Republicans would likely oppose the bill, but my guess is that the centrists would fall behind Trump very quickly Many Republicans want to avoid health-insurance premium hikes before the midterm The tariff rebate would also help answer the affordability question that is likely to dominate the debate before the mid-term. To placate the fiscal hawks, Trump could offer to close certain corporate tax loopholes and cap discretionary spending growth I can even see Trump offering to use the tariff revenue to fund part of the extension of the Obamacare subsidies. I don’t underestimate that challenge of getting such a bill through both Houses quickly, but I would give a 60%
3)MORE BUYERS OR SELLERS?
Add Your title Text Here Welcome to the unbound trade school. This time we are revisiting the topic of stock trading. You can think of this as being like the recitation session for the original video. I’ll review what I think are the most important things to understand, with examples that focus on how to do things as opposed to just what to do. In this and other example videos, my examples will only assume that you know how to search the internet. You found this, so I guess we can begin then.
1)Beat the market to duplicate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqGtMrG9xjQ Video Transcript Welcome to the unbound trade school. This time we are revisiting the topic of stock trading. You can think of this as being like the recitation session for the original video. I’ll review what I think are the most important things to understand, with examples that focus on how to do things as opposed to just what to do. In this and other example videos, my examples will only assume that you know how to search the internet. You found this, so I guess we can begin then.
2)Macro Angle to duplicate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqGtMrG9xjQ Video Transcript Welcome to the unbound trade school. This time we are revisiting the topic of stock trading. You can think of this as being like the recitation session for the original video. I’ll review what I think are the most important things to understand, with examples that focus on how to do things as opposed to just what to do. In this and other example videos, my examples will only assume that you know how to search the internet. You found this, so I guess we can begin then.
