Hybrid Theory
Europe is one step closer to a trade war with China after talks failed to deliver convincing concessions on hybrid imports. Meanwhile, Iran’s hybrid warfare campaign threatens another rates shock, just as corporations may be adopting a hybrid strategy on AI.
Trade Brief 9th October (OpenAI, RTX)
OpenAI is good at maths, but has confused investors with how it annualizes revenue. A possible bottom in RTX. Book up 6.8 760bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief 8th October (PENG, CAT, BULL)
PENG tells us that for persistent high-utilisation workloads, owning is better than renting. This could reshape the AI buildout. Raise stop in AAPL. Book up 6.7, 820bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief 7th October (MRVL, XLU, URA)
Compute per gigawatt may be broadening from an efficiency theme to a certainty theme with long term contracts. This benefits both utitilies in general and nuclear in patricular, though for slightly different reasons. Book up 6.8%, 830bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief 6th October (AVGO, France, Oil)
The market may be starting to price our view on AVGO. EUR/USD weakness yesterday looked like M&A. Brent is diverging from WTI. Book up 6.1%, 840bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief – Moving from GLD to XLU
Rotating from GLD into XLU as the AI buildout maintains demand for power, while geopolitical risk looks unfavourable for gold in the near term.
Liquidité, Volatilité, Utilité
Bond market volatility is beginning to create liquidity events, with OATs getting smoked. Rate-sensitive equities are feeling the heat, but utilities may already have reached a firebreak.
Trade Brief 2nd October (France, ACN, COHR)
Higher rates vol may have killed the appeal of earning carry in French vs German bonds. That is the best case scenario. Book up 5.2%, 770bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief 1st October (AI race, JBL)
The dreadnought arms race of the early 20th century has some parallels to the AI race. JBL tells us that the AI race is full steam ahead. Book up 5.0%, 770bps behind SPY.
Trade Brief 30th September (JEF, XLU)
JEF earnings may not translate to other banks as September was a different beast. Rally in utilities could be just month end buying in place of bonds. Book up 5.3%, 770bps behind SPY.
